I'm under the impression lots and lots of people are soaking up enhanced unemployment benefits right now through the end of July. So, the ONLY shoppers probably willing to work are those still employed or recently "forced back" who :
a.) need the extra cash; and/or
b.) aren't afraid of the virus
CARES Act and PPP loan companies are just now bringing workers back on, but it's a slow process with phased reopenings. I could be wrong, but personally, I'm expecting a huge disappointing return to work for several reasons and layoffs coming soon (and, thus, a possible increased shopper base):
i.) virus conditions (new spikes and people wary of going out still)
ii.) PPP recipients who close permanently
This is anecdotal, but ALL of my parents friends (seniors or just below senior age) are staying home and their kids are pleading with them not to go out. Granted, they are financially decently well off and can afford to not work and many are retired. But, they don't have plans to go out much (if at all) during COVID and will wait for a very effective treatment or vaccine. One of my mom's friends is considering permanently closing her hair salon because of her husband's medical condition (scared to bring the virus back to him). Their kids bring them things they need and the parents won't be vacationing, won't be eating out, won't be getting their hair and nails done, etc. As I've mentioned in another thread, you can officially reopen the economy all you want, but no one can "really" reopen unless patrons return and that is up to us. If we don't feel safe, we're not going back out. I think many businesses will find much diminished revenue and will have to lay people off.
Secondly, many PPP recipients may have taken loans just to pay their workers and rent with a built-in escape clause. The rule is that if you don't bring everyone back on, then your loan is a loan and can't be converted to a grant. HOWEVER, this is a huge "loophole" of sorts. If you close down permanently, then you don't owe the loans back either. This was a scenario I'd heard brought up before and there's chatter that many companies may have had this scenario in mind (and maybe even the designers) as a no-lose situation. They can grab the loans first and figure out what to do later. If they're seeing business conditions looking bad upon reopening, they can say at that point, nope, we're going out of business and wipe out the loan obligations that way. That could also trigger layoffs quickly without business owners struggling for a long time to keep things afloat.
If we get a bad restart to the economy and lots of layoffs, the shopper base could explode and MSCs may, again, have little incentive to raise their rates if you have lots of people needing immediate cash and willing to work for base rates. Up until now, I've been under the impression that people have still been enjoying their stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment. No need to risk one's life for a $10 shop. In a couple of months? I dunno.
Then, again, maybe Congress extends enhanced unemployment and gives more stimulus...it IS an election year after all.
We shall see. We shall see.
Ultimately, it sort of still goes back to supply and demand for me. I do think it's the "right" thing to pay more during a dangerous pandemic. But, if shopper A is okay to accept jobs for $5, then shopper B who wants a $5 hazard premium on shops just can't ever get it.