I believe in responsible spending, both personally and certainly for the government. Spending isn't the issue; it's how, what, and when. Let's ignore the COVID anomaly. The previous administration, which I supported, increased spending before the pandemic. However, inflation didn't take hold because key economic sectors saw a supply boost. Take energy, a crucial driver. Increased domestic oil production significantly lowered fuel prices pre-pandemic. Importantly, this was achieved domestically, with the "Drill, baby, drill!" approach. Supply rose, and fuel prices fell – even with rising demand due to more people having more money in their pockets thanks to tax cuts (another positive). More vacations were taken, stimulating local economies. Restaurants boomed. Services were in high demand, potentially increasing the need for mystery shopping – all good things.
COVID hit, fundamentally changing the economy. Its impact, I fear, will linger beyond the next administration. Trillions were spent in a short period. We all loved getting "free" money, but it wasn't free. Eventually, egg prices were bound to rise. You can't keep printing money, devaluing the dollar, without real prices increasing, even in areas with lower demand.
The past few years have been unnecessarily painful because of continued excessive spending, with both Republicans and Democrats to blame. Both sides love spending our money, often on wasteful projects buried as pork in massive bills. This is why I strongly support individual spending bills. It makes it harder to sneak in a $5 million line item for a giant public fish tank where citizens can exercise their pet fish.
Recent spending sprees have impacted many things. Has the mystery shopping industry been affected? I recently re-entered the field after 18 months, and I've seen a decrease in pay for the regular jobs I do (or did), specifically gas audits. Did prices fall because stations suddenly had no money for mystery shopping? Maybe, maybe not. It's hard to say definitively with other factors at play.
Regarding gas audits, I know station owners pay for mystery shopping – it's part of their agreement. They also pay for violations. So, energy companies might actually profit from mystery shopping. I don't recall the exact amount, but an owner told me he paid either $60 or $80 per month for mystery shopping. Violations definitely incur fines. An employee without a name badge could cost them around $70. Some owners deducted that amount from the offending employee's paycheck. My point is, if owners pay for this as part of an agreement, economic changes wouldn't directly impact it.
What about other industries? Most restaurants are franchised. While it's been a while since I looked at a franchise agreement, I wouldn't be surprised if franchisees pay to be mystery shopped. Many retail stores, like Mattress Firm, are also franchised. It wouldn't surprise me if part of the agreement requires the franchisee to pay for mystery shopping.
Despite my concerns, I don't believe the demand for mystery shopping will disappear in the next 2-3 years. However, what we earn on the back end might be a different story. Our income is more affected by the number of mystery shopping companies (MSCs) and the jobs they offer. There are definitely fewer MSCs than when I started. Fewer MSCs mean less competition, which could raise prices for clients, potentially pushing some out of the market – leading to fewer jobs for us shoppers.
To maximize profits, MSCs do two things: lower (or maintain) fees for existing jobs and try to increase their shopper pool. There's nothing wrong with either approach. Any good business wants to make money. However, I see signs that the large MSC, at least its mystery shopping division, is struggling. (Keep in mind, they do more than mystery shopping.) I believe the division grew too quickly, and even with COVID causing fewer jobs, they reportedly continued acquiring other MSCs. As COVID restrictions eased and shops reopened, their administrative costs skyrocketed. This might explain the decline in scheduler use and the shift of gas audits to Presto. They have access to a potential larger shopper pool.
In my experience as a retail seller online, the overall trend I'm seeing is that people are still buying. My 2024 Q1 gross sales were only down 1.2% from 2023 Q4. That is remarkable to me because I had to close for two weeks in January after a tree fell onto my garage where I house my inventory. After I reopened, it took another week to get my listings back in the system again for me to generate sales. Had I been open and made sales over those three weeks, I would have easily had Q1 sales greater than Q4. I was extremely pleased and why I finally decided to shift away from mystery shopping and focus more on selling online. People are buying. Importantly, people are buying things related to non-essentials, like hobbies. The economy is not stable and people don't feel it, but it isn't stopping them from spending. I think this is largely due to two reasons: First, people see the government spending and borrowing money, so they naturally do it too. The average amount of credit card debit a person carries is crazy, especially at today's interest rates. The second reason people keep spending is because of the tax cuts, which will expire in the next administration. The current administration has already said they will not renew them. To be sure, there is no guarantee that even if the previous administration returns, the tax cuts will remain. We'll likely have a split congress, and that will mean in order to keep the tax cuts, there will be a lot more spending. What will be the lifesaver is the drilling of oil. But, if there is not a new administration, then the final axe in our economy is going to strike. It's going to be ugly. It's going to be painful. And we're going to see brick-and-morter restaurants and retail close. Online shops, overall, will remain flat or see decreases, but they will whether the storm. For mystery shoppers, there will be fewer jobs and most certainly bonuses will be rarer than a pink elephant.
I didn't even get into my thoughts on AI and its impacts, plus the impacts of people not wanting to work traditional jobs and the pool of "willing" workers being a poor quality.
Never Complain, Never Explain.