Will You Specially "Prepare" for COVID's Winter? (Influential Model Predicts Possibly 415,000 - 600,000 Deaths by January 1st)

[www.cnn.com]
@ wrote:

(CNN)An influential model is predicting a catastrophic winter with a significant rise in coronavirus deaths.

A possible scenario sees 415,090 Covid-19 deaths by January, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington says in its latest forecast. The worst-case scenario is 600,000 deaths by January 1.
While the weather is still warm, we are stocking up on stuff, getting in necessary doctor's visits, taking care of administrative stuff, etc. to reduce having to go out this winter.

Flu shots yet anyone?

There is a kind of "great unknown" with COVID going into this winter. Will the virus mutate (as it did with the Spanish flu and result in a very deadly second wave)? Will colder and less humid weather (and less sunshine) mean greater spread? Will returning to work for much of the country and being indoors too increase cases?

This isn't to scare anyone, but for those who may be vulnerable, this may be a crucial time to get things done to prepare. The weather is changing guys.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/19/2020 07:42AM by shoptastic.

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My license expires in weeks, so going to the DMV (I cannot renew online) is something I need to do and fear.

Going to be a busy few weeks.
I keep remembering I need to get a flu shot first thing in the morning and right before bed. At neither time is the store open :-)

Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. Eleanor Roosevelt
I’m not over 65, obese, with breathing difficulties or any underlying conditions. I’m still very careful because I know plenty of people that fit that group. 70% of Americans are overweight or obese, so that’s a lot of people.
Winter? I'm still in hurricane prep mode.

As for a flu shot, I get mine at the grocery store, but not until they start offering the $10 gift card.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/13/2020 01:48AM by panama18.
Same as always. Stay clean, and away from people who are hacking up a lung.

"Let me offer you my definition of social justice: I keep what I earn and you keep what you earn. Do you disagree? Well then tell me how much of what I earn belongs to you - and why?” ~Walter Williams
We got our seasonal flu shots the other day at the grocery store that gives $10 gift cards with flu shots. Cashed in the cards tonight on that store's deli subs that are on sale this week. We continue staying well stocked for protein frozen down, dry legumes and pastas, canned and frozen veggies and fruits, paper products and cleaning supplies. And because we are in a hurricane area, this year we got solar panels on the roof with battery backup such that if the area gets hit we are unlikely to need to evacuate to hotels or shelters. We do have several packages of bottled water, though we are on well and septic. Recently stores have been doing clearance on hand sanitizer so I have stocked up--unopened it is not going to go bad for a long time. Significant other teases that I am a 'Doomsday Prepper'. I will be starting vegetable seeds tomorrow for our fall garden.
@Flash wrote:

Significant other teases that I am a 'Doomsday Prepper'. I will be starting vegetable seeds tomorrow for our fall garden.
Nah.

If we really do get a "Winter of Death" (a la the October Spanish flu second wave that killed the most people), it will be a relief to have stuff stocked and NOT have to go out to grocery stores. I'd rather be safe than worry. smiling smiley
Thus far we have been lucky as we plan our trips to the store at times when there are few customers and we go carefully masked. There have been times when we arrived at a store and the full parking lot meant we did not get out of the car. I expect that to continue so that bread, milk, eggs and fresh vegetables can be purchased, but if it doesn't, I overstock eggs, have boxes of shelf stable milk, can make bread and have fresh and frozen vegetables.
@SoCalMama wrote:

I’m not over 65,
Yeah, currently that's not a major risk age, SoCalMama. A big uncertainty and concern is whether we see a pattern like 1918's second wave, which killed young people in large numbers as well.

20 to 50 million people are estimated to have died in the Spanish flu. The October second wave, which was the deadliest, is often attributed to a mutated strain. [www.history.com]
@ wrote:

Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection. . .

From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October. And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.

“That really freaked out the medical establishment, that there was this atypical spike in the middle of the W,” says Harris.
One study I saw said this was the most likely of three possible scenarios with COVID-19 - that we'd get a "deadly second wave." I posted that article in a thread months ago (too lazy to look it up), but basically there's a big "unknown" coming into winter. Even without a deadly mutation, some of the benefits of summer wearing off may lead to some tough times.

Let's hope not, though!
@Flash wrote:

Thus far we have been lucky as we plan our trips to the store at times when there are few customers and we go carefully masked. There have been times when we arrived at a store and the full parking lot meant we did not get out of the car. I expect that to continue so that bread, milk, eggs and fresh vegetables can be purchased, but if it doesn't, I overstock eggs, have boxes of shelf stable milk, can make bread and have fresh and frozen vegetables.
Same. We saw Costco packed one day and left to come back another day.

I mentioned this before, but many cities have volunteer shoppers for vulnerable people. I think one is called Invisible Hands. They do not charge, if I'm not mistaken, and help seniors/vulnerable shop for groceries, during this time of COVID.

One benefit is that nowadays there exists Amazon and delivery services not available in 1918.
No, not doing extra stocking up.
Pantry and freezer are well stocked as usual. Really, I want to pare it down as I hate eating old food to keep it rotated.
Still using tomatoes straight from garden. That will end soon, due to cold. Carrots and beets, we will use from the garden for another month.
@shoptastic wrote:

@SoCalMama wrote:

I’m not over 65,
Yeah, currently that's not a major risk age, SoCalMama. A big uncertainty and concern is whether we see a pattern like 1918's second wave, which killed young people in large numbers as well.

>90% of the deaths in my area are people over 65 years of age. Healthy people under 65 years of age rarely die from the flu.
Fall garden? What do you grow in the winter? Everything I grow in the summer fails. Too hot. Maybe I'll try fall if there's stuff to grow.

@Flash wrote:

I will be starting vegetable seeds tomorrow for our fall garden.
@panama18 wrote:

Fall garden? What do you grow in the winter? Everything I grow in the summer fails. Too hot. Maybe I'll try fall if there's stuff to grow.

@Flash wrote:

I will be starting vegetable seeds tomorrow for our fall garden.

Carrots and beets do well in the cold. Last year I had peas that made it through even some frosty nights. Mustard greens are also pretty hardy.

sestrahelena
I am actually kind of weary of this whole pandemic thing. I know it's wrong to think that way but it's constantly on all media sources and, after a while, it's like Groundhog Day. Hated that movie and the repetitiveness (is that a word?) of it. I still mask, don't go anywhere socially, stay away from people and clean. But I was already doing that, except the mask, for many years. I'm tired of hearing about deaths, political failures and racial atrocities. Yes, they are there and they are terrible but I'm just tired of it. Every. Single. Minute.

There. I said it. Hate me if you want. But remember that it is only the worthless opinion of one semi-curmudgeonly old hag.

sestrahelena


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/13/2020 10:17PM by sestrahelena.
There's a well known epidemiologist who predicted 2 million deaths. In the midst of a pandemic, he went out to his married lover to have sex with.
Have we reached 2 million yet?
He too was on CNN.

No, I don't trust CNN, nor these elaborate numbers.
I still think that mil and I are too darned ornery for the likes of covid-19. Even if you throw tomatoes, we will probably laugh until we pee. But seriously. She in her world and we in our world are well prepared with masks, gloves, emergency food, extra water, and a decent diet overall.

@ sestrahelena and sparklesthekitty: Thank you. I am still looking for the article or study (or something) that describes how fixating on the news is unhealthy and possibly dumbing us down by limiting what we are exposed to and by making much of many things with audio visual effects and expert opinions and commentaries which might give more weight to ideas that we would not give if we simply read or observed life events by ourselves.

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
@sestrahelena wrote:

I am actually kind of weary of this whole pandemic thing.
I actually get ya. smiling smiley

I'm kind of tired of it too, despite posting about it (it is an outlet for my anxiety, I think). I should take a break and catch up on movies and other news. Your post reminded me how doing other stuff is important and healthy too.

I wish I had better DVDs at home. I hate when you get really excited about one when you buy it and then after watching it once, it isn't as interesting anymore. Then it just sits and collects dust. And you wish you had other movies. lol.
I guess I never saw it as hoarding. Makes me wonder, though. smiling smiley

For me, it's more of just being "responsible" and wise if you are vulnerable or live with someone who is to take some time to prepare for a possibly bad situation ahead of time.

The way I'm looking at it, this could be a critical time to get ready, before the weather changes and we possibly get a bad surge. Is that hoarding? lol
I dunno about anyone else.

Considering the early snowfall this year and a grocery store's power outage which can affect food safety there, it is a good idea to have food with a shelf life and other products that reduce our need to go to stores or order replacements. If our power or internet go out, we have no way to order replacement items. How much time would then pass between order and need? In our world, we have two eaters and an oddball work schedule. We do not mesh well with other schedules. Daily, we use at least two pairs of gloves and at least one mask. Add this up over time and determine how much on-hand inventory is sensible in our world. Would you call this hoarding or common sense for people who live with power outages, road and location closures, and being snowed in (which is tolerable when we have food and water). On top of all that, we live in a weeny space. We make good use of the space we have, but there is not enough space to "hoard" the recommended products for a proper hunkering down in the covid era.

It would be interesting to find out how other people distinguish between hoarding and preparedness...


@Madetoshop wrote:

Here we go with the hoarding again?

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
@Shop-et-al wrote:

It would be interesting to find out how other people distinguish between hoarding and preparedness...
I feel like it would be when you go irrationally above preparedness.

We want to get through the winter (through Mar./April of next year) that could be the Winter of Death (lol).

In that case, preparedness would be stocking up to do that. Anything over would maybe be considered hoarding and irrational? I guess that's one way of looking at it.
Over time I have dealt with several hoarders. Hoarders stockpile stuff because 'it might be useful sometime'. I remember a former neighbor who hoarded flower pots. She did not start plants from seed and she didn't keep plants in pots, rather she bought her garden from Home Depot or Lowes and when she planted out, she rinsed, stacked and saved the pots. The pots were a splendid housing for vermin. I persuaded her that my Dad needed the pots for his orchids and cleared out 7 huge lawn trash bags with the stacks of pots that I quietly sent for recycling. The roaches and snakes that had been living in the trash moved on and stopped being an issue at my house.

Since I am in Florida, our 'growing season' is fall through spring. If you want to try to grow veggies during the summer you need to find moderate to deep shade for them or they will sunburn and shrivel away. Generally I try to get my plants out around mid-October. I used to plant out tomatoes and broccoli. If we had a freeze the broccoli was good and if it didn't, the tomatoes were good. We haven't had a freeze now for 6 years so there is little hope for broccoli having flavor.

I tend to hoard things that were very useful once but are now rarely if ever used. Every year or so I muck out a space and the no longer used gets carted off to Goodwill.

Planning for isolation is determining time frame, which I am projecting as 6 months. While it is impossible to predict what my significant other will want for his lunch for 6 months (he puts together his own lunch) I have a good idea of how many jars of mayonnaise, pasta sauce, no sugar pickle relish, cans of cream of mushroom soup, cans of tuna, bottles of applesauce, etc. we will use in that time. Rarely does anything in my pantry go out of date.
I got my flu shot and want to check on my veggies. Supposed to freeze tonight. Going to pick all peppers, some tomatoes and cover sweet bells. Kind of early this year.
Don't want to create a new thread, so thought I'd ask here:

What do you do if you have a neighbor who is younger (not high risk and maybe doesn't care) and comes to your residence without a mask to talk to you. This isn't a salesman or stranger, but someone who lives right next to you? You can't easily/politely not talk to them.

This happened with my mother. A neighbor from across the street came by to ask her some stuff (casual chat) and was within ....3.5 - 4 feet of her face without a mask. Neither had on a mask, but it was the neighbor who approached, so she wasn't prepared and was slightly taken off guard.

My mom remained polite and tried to answer things quickly to avoid possible COVID spread, but the conversation still took between 5-10 minutes. She said she felt too awkward to ask him to wear a mask in the middle of the conversation.

The thing is, this person is new to the neighborhood and may not know my parents age and health situation. Her other closest neighbor has known her for years and they both know both sides have elderly with heart and lung conditions. There isn't even a need for telling each other to mask up or social distance with that neighbor. They naturally know better. But, this newer neighbor (less than one year) may not know.

What etiquette would you take if you're trying to social distance and mask and a clueless neighbor like this walks right up to you to chat and catches you unprepared?
People have come up to me and I have stepped back and told them to give me my bubble. In a good natured way. Seems to work
@shoptastic:

Only because hindsight is perfect, I have an answer. In that perfect world, your parent would hold up a hand, smile, and say that they could talk to the visitor just as soon as they both had masks. This perfect world had a lil' mask dispenser by the door, and your mom got one for herself and one for the neighbor.

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
Without hesitation, hold up a hand and ask for "distance, please", or "mask, please". Niceties are no longer.
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