Will You Specially "Prepare" for COVID's Winter? (Influential Model Predicts Possibly 415,000 - 600,000 Deaths by January 1st)

@iShop123 wrote:

Also, ABC News recently reported that 94% of COVID-related deaths were from people with pre-existing morbidity conditions. Everyone has their own level of comfort, and we should respect their choices.

Those pre-existing morbidity conditions are quite common. Diabetes type II/pre-diabetes afflicts about 1/3 of adults over 21, which means they are quite common. Asthma is so common that the weather reports include asthma warnings. Same with allergies of all kinds. Lots of people stopped smoking over the past 30 years, but then vaping came along and pushed up the numbers of those smoking/vaping. Legal weed probably increased the numbers of smokers, too. Obesity is so common now (compared to 30 years ago) that many people don't recognize it when they see it. Overweight even more common, though I don't know whether overweight qualifies as a pre-morbid condition for covid. And this is just a few of the pre-morbid conditions--which in some people may have them so mild, or confused their sneezing with other things, that they don't know they have these conditions (asthma, allergies, and pre-diabetes are good examples of this). In an America with no insurance (still) for many or inadequate health care for lots of people, not knowing is not uncommon. So ABC News' 94% number is big enough to include almost anyone of any age.

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It is now mandatory to wear masks and/or face shields for the duration of each shift at my new/old job. My personal best time for a mask so far is about an hour, and that was for a gig. As soon as possible, i yanked that thing off and gulped in air! Think I will start with a mask and be willing to change to the shield.

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
You can get "barely there" ones on Etsy that satisfy the requirement to wear one yet still let you breathe.

@Susan, the morbid obesity that is the #1 risk factor (by far) for COVID death assumes a BMI of over 40 -- not just obese.

"Let me offer you my definition of social justice: I keep what I earn and you keep what you earn. Do you disagree? Well then tell me how much of what I earn belongs to you - and why?” ~Walter Williams


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/25/2020 02:00AM by iShop123.
Generally morbid obesity begins with a BMI of 35 so by the time you get to a BMI of over 40 you are pretty deep in the weeds. But even there. BMI is not the whole story. Sumo wrestlers in one study averaged a BMI of 36.5 with 26.2% of their weight being fat. They are healthy athletes until they retire from the constant training of the sport, at which time they are as prone to the complications of morbid obesity as the rest of their genetic peers as there is a genetic link to most if not all complications of morbid obesity. Possible complications can include arthritis, breathing problems, sleep apnea, some cancers, stroke, maintenance of metabolic balances, diabetes, heart disease, etc.

While it is a handy rationalization to assume you are safe because you have few of the risk factors that would allow COVID to kill you, it is important to realize that a large number of survivors are surviving with heart damage, kidney damage, lung damage and other issues caused by COVID that they will most likely have for the rest of their lives.
And... the key word is "living".

There is no guarantee that we will not have altered health and life conditions. So people are living and undoubtedly learning to adapt to a new way of life.They figure it out as they go, utilize known resources, or learn along with others.

[says one who has adapted all and sundry aspects of life for several decades]

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
Of course there are no guarantees. Yet I assume most of us do what we can to prevent harm to ourselves: we throw out spoiled food rather than just eating it anyway; look both ways before crossing the street; obey traffic signals and assume/hope others will do the same; stay off thin ice; avoid trip hazards in our homes; don't saw off the branch our ladder is leaned against etc.
Long before covid-19, I was doing nothing wrong and taking the reasonable and necessary actions. Here I am, today, alive, living, and adapting all the time.

Might it be equally important to consider how to cope with covid-19 effects and how to prevent spread of the disease?

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
Of course priority #1 is to prevent spread of the disease and in this, individual agendas are taking priority over public health, which is obscene.

It will be a test of our nation's altruism how we handle COVID effects. We have a large number of people without health insurance. If I recall correctly, the Federal Government covers much of the cost of kidney dialysis because it was pretty much the first chronic disease that there was a way to handle if you had the money for dialysis. It is likely that many survivors of COVID will need organ replacement of hearts, lungs, livers and kidneys. This certainly not the time to allow insurance to deny coverage for 'pre-existing conditions'. It probably also makes sense for the Federal Government get impacted COVID survivors onto Medicare or some program specifically designed to handle bad outcomes from COVID. It also serves as a reminder that if you have not registered as an organ donor, you should at least consider it.
Ah, Bah Humbug. We all die in the end, I am just trying not to get a Darwin award. Although my cancer has taken care of contributions to the gene pool part.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/07/2020 07:03PM by 2stepps.
@Shop-et-al wrote:


Just saw a pop-up for a petition

Pop-up? Who allows pop-ups these days? Tsk, tsk!

sestrahelena
@sestrahelena wrote:

@Shop-et-al wrote:


Just saw a pop-up for a petition

Pop-up? Who allows pop-ups these days? Tsk, tsk!
Do be careful of them, Shop-et-al. If I'm not mistaken, they can be common opportunities for "attack," no? ...as in malware?
@2stepps wrote:

Ah, Bah Humbug. We all die in the end, I am just trying not to get a Darwin award. Although my cancer has taken care of contributions to the gene pool part.
Glad you have a sense of humor (it keeps the body/mind well). It's true we all die, but it's still good to be careful and try to avoid this bug. I pray for you all and hope we all can avoid and/or beat this darn thing!

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/08/2020 07:01AM by shoptastic.
So I am prepated to lose a job to a covid closure and not be eligible for benefits. I am working too much, getting a little cranky, stanky, and skanky, and hoping this money will just be extra. But if not, I will have enough for the rest of the year.

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
@ wrote:

In case you were still procrastinating getting a flu shot this year, here's another reason to make it a priority.

There's a chance the vaccine could offer some protection against COVID-19 itself, says virologist Robert Gallo, who directs the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine and is chairman of the Global Virus Network.

The key is getting the right flu vaccine, says Gallo, who was one of the main scientists credited with discovering HIV. "The vaccine has to have a live virus in it. The virus is attenuated so it doesn't cause disease, but otherwise the virus is alive."
From NPR today: [www.npr.org]

I got an inactivated virus for my shot, but I'm going to look into this.
@sparklesthekitty wrote:

There's a well known epidemiologist who predicted 2 million deaths. In the midst of a pandemic, he went out to his married lover to have sex with.
Have we reached 2 million yet?
He too was on CNN.

No, I don't trust CNN, nor these elaborate numbers.

You should be a little more honest. 2 million was a possibility....if nothing was done.

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@msimon-2000 wrote:

The Spanish Flu was an H1N1 Influenza virus and Covid-19 is a Coronavirus. I think it would be hard to predict, contrast, and compare the behaviors of the two.

Also, the CNN article didn't specify whether the predicted deaths were just for the USA or worldwide. If just the USA, that would be a lot for the 2nd wave. OTOH, for the world, that isn't that big of a jump from current levels.
Yeah, influenza is a different family of viruses from coronaviruses, but many believe both behave the same (as viruses) in regards to changing weather conditions.

Sunlight (UV rays) can deactivate a virus (I think I've seen as short of time as 30 minutes), while survivability of the virus is decreased when exposed to high heat, etc. As the weather changes, some of the advantages of heat, sun, and humidity will be gone. That's a major worry, on top of more congregating indoors.

Btw, Europe's second wave may have already begun:
[apnews.com]
You don't know if the 2 million prediction was right or not if nothing was done.
Secondly, why would you trust someone who says one thing but does the complete opposite?
This so called famous scientist went out in the middle of the pandemic to have sex with his married lover. Obviously, he didn't consider the virus that much of a threat if he was risking his life and his partner's life for sex.
Disgraceful.
People do stupid things for a chance at sex Eh the risk is not that bad he says to himself. If you want to be part of the cancel culture you can be but people say and do stupid things all of the time. And going by what you are saying Washington DC would be a ghost town along with most states capitol. Oh and excuse me do we not shade the truth all of the time because of our chosen profession?

@sparklesthekitty wrote:

You don't know if the 2 million prediction was right or not if nothing was done.
Secondly, why would you trust someone who says one thing but does the complete opposite?
This so called famous scientist went out in the middle of the pandemic to have sex with his married lover. Obviously, he didn't consider the virus that much of a threat if he was risking his life and his partner's life for sex.
Disgraceful.
Covid numbers, schmovid numbers.

My personal numbers are improving. I have been informed that I can work more hours at the night job and keep some of the gigs. I will accomplish some of next year's goal this year. I feel much better about money, even if I will be too numb from lack of sleep to feel anything else...

Things are not to be judged good or bad merely because the public think so. - Tacitus
If 220,000 children died of COVID, it would be a national tragedy and not something to be mocked by the President. If 220,000 Americans died in wildfires over the summer, we'd be mourning as a nation.

I hurt for those economically displaced by COVID (but are not vulnerable to COVID as a virus). I don't understand those who downplay and show zero compassion for COVID victims.

This nation has some sick people (and I don't mean physically). I'm ashamed of America.
People die every day. Most of those 202,000 were going to die soon anyway. It's unfortunate they went sooner.

If you're ashamed, I'll buy your ticket out if you want to permanently relocate. Or, are you just virtue signalling like all the celebrities who claimed they were going to leave?

Enough with your political posts. I'm sick of reading them. You can discuss this and other topics without getting into politics. You repeatedly fail to adhere to the boards' "no politics" rule.

"Let me offer you my definition of social justice: I keep what I earn and you keep what you earn. Do you disagree? Well then tell me how much of what I earn belongs to you - and why?” ~Walter Williams
@iShop123 wrote:

People die every day.
With respect, this is a line that, unfortunately, doesn't do anything to address the main crux of people's moral objections to how the U.S. handled COVID. I prefer to stick with analyses of what would have been best for the nation.
@ wrote:

Or, are you just virtue signalling like all the celebrities who claimed they were going to leave?
Again, with all due respect, I have to say say that you're out of line here in both your tone and the flippant manner in which you've asked an accusatory, character-impugning question. If you're just having a bad day or agitated in some other way, I get it...we can all be aggressive/abrasive at times...but, I still have to say this. It's out of line.

But just to answer your question, I don't know if I used the right word. Maybe "shame" is not my true emotion in all of this. Rather, I'm primarily hotly angered by how certain Americans are treating the pandemic and I guess I have no problem with just venting that.

I'm okay with genuine ignorance from someone who is well-intentioned. I.e., Maybe someone really just has bad facts. What angers me is that certain people, I believe, know better (or, at least, should know better and have allowed their politics/self-interests to get in the way of even trying to see the truth). I think there are lots of individuals, who are self-interested (economically, socially, culturally, and/or politically)) and "know better" that try to justify how the U.S. has approached the virus. They know it's wrong, but won't acknowledge that and may instead push nonsense scientific views, downplay things, divert attention to other things...basically "lie" in some way. I do not respect this, am angered by it, and believe it does harm. I also just sense a deep darkness and moral evil in America in this moment in time.

@ wrote:

Enough with your political posts. I'm sick of reading them. You can discuss this and other topics without getting into politics. You repeatedly fail to adhere to the boards' "no politics" rule.
That's fair.

We do "accept" tangential references to politics, but I agree that I've "vented politically" before and agree that I should not do that. smiling smiley I'm not sure if this particular re:'d/referenced post had anything overtly political, though.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/15/2020 06:31AM by shoptastic.
@iShop123 wrote:

Most of those 202,000 were going to die soon anyway. It's unfortunate they went sooner.
I believe this thinking potentially devalues the innate worth of every human being (regardless of age) and distracts from how we can love and protect our most vulnerable members of society (in this case, primarily the elderly, but also traditionally including women and children).

You know, this is may seem off-topic and random, but I'd challenge you (and anyone else) to read this young girl's story: [www.cnn.com]

She did not die of COVID, but died an inspirational hero in my eyes (it's a very sad story and one that brought tears to my eyes when reading it recently). If this is what a hero is - someone who saves others' lives - then think of how perverted the morality we've stooped to in this nation, where for reasons of making a political statement or other self-interests, people would flout mask wearing and social distancing that could easily save the life of an elderly person (or countless others, who are also vulnerable). Rather than being heroic, the way this country responded in many places essentially terrorized the elderly and physically weak: concealing or manipulating virus data; pushing for less testing; creating a culture of false bravado and delusional American exceptionalism in non-mask wearing; obfuscating virus facts/science; prematurely forcing back open economies without protections and into growing hot spots. . .

Raina Lynn Neeland was a precious hero, who made the ultimate personal sacrifice to save the lives of multiple other children. She deserves our honor, respect, and praise. All of us in America can also be heroes with a much, much smaller sacrifice, by simply abiding by safety protocols and working to protect/save the elderly & vulnerable from COVID, yet so many have intentionally done the exact opposite. What does that make them and should I not be ashamed of this country?

Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 10/15/2020 07:40AM by shoptastic.
@iShop123 wrote:

You repeatedly fail to adhere to the boards' "no politics" rule.
I'm going to make this my final post in this thread for now and possibly for a while on the forum, as I want to take a break. But, I wanted to address this.

I hesitated to say this earlier, because I dislike singling people out in a personal way that humiliates or potentially brings unnecessary antagonism toward them. And, if there is ever a problem arising in interpersonal relations, I genuinely believe that "correction" should be done in love - even if stern at times.

My post was in response to Shopetal's comments, which were directly above mine. I did not intend anything political in that post, but perhaps can see how it may have been interpreted that way. I sort of vented some frustration, but had also been indirectly rebuking Shopetal's comments. I wish I had approached it differently.

I value Shopetal as a forum member and respect many things she has done (previously standing up for me in instances of unwarranted forum attack) and said (with lots of intellectually interesting and highly educated takes on a variety of subject matters - as a former Ph.D. student in one of those areas, I know this to be the case, given some obscure references to things of a perhaps culturally arcane nature). I've genuinely enjoyed chatting with Shopetal and am sure I will do so going forward.

However, I felt the need to respond to her comments directly above mine, because it felt like a pattern of dismissal and change of topic that I believe is disrespectful to the nature of the conversation/topic and its seriousness. I try very hard to not jump to conclusions and criticism of others, as I think we can all be too quick to misinterpret/misunderstand something at times (I've been guilty of this certainly), and only made those "frustration," rebuking comments when I felt I had seen something happen too many times to not be intentional and wrong in attitude. COVID is a serious topic and certain aspects of it deserve to be treated as such. It would be disrespectful and harmful, in the midst of discussion on aspects of human safety and general societal well-being, to make "dismissive" comments about the virus and immediately change the subject matter to unrelated things. I felt this was done repeatedly over several months in a similar fashion/pattern. I reacted with comments that I felt Shopetal would "understand" and know were addressing this issue, but that perhaps someone from the "outside" may not have known.

If you've been away from the forum chat on COVID for many months (March, April, May, June, July, and so on) and are reacting based on a month or two of posts, I don't believe you have the full context of things to know why I said what I did. I should have been more direct with Shopetal in how I worded things - I actually greatly dislike making anyone feel bad (it's something I hate, actually) - and that would be my fault for taking an indirect rebuking approach. In hindsight, it feels passive aggressive in a negative way. *I'm genuinely sorry, Shopetal, if you're reading this and may later send you a PM.* But for clarity now, I don't believe you understood what you were criticizing and seeing with my comments above.

Regardless, I don't wish anything ill of anyone (whether with you, Shopetal, or anyone else) and do not want to have any unnecessary extended tensions beyond this. I'll simply say, with lots of tough love behind this (as I like and value Shopetal), that Shopetal's manner of approaching these discussions has been wrong and I hope taking time to consider others' genuine pain, fears, and more serious personal approaches to the matter can illuminate why a dismissive attitude is hurtful, harmful, and wrong. I am sorry if I caused any unnecessary confusion with what I said.

Are there also deeper political criticisms I have to how things have been approached, by our nation and its leadership, with regard to the pandemic, stimulus, and the like? Yes (and I've been angry about them). But, as you said (and I think I agree with), we should strive to keep that out of the forum's discussion if such pure political commentary is unwanted. I'm sorry for having been guilty of that in the past. I am going to more rigorously hold myself accountable going forward to not comment on political things.

Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 10/15/2020 11:57PM by shoptastic.
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