When will you feel safe regularly going out in public again?

Texas will start to reopen on May 1. Phase 1 includes restaurants, malls, movies, libraries, museums. All social quarantining will be in place and limited numbers of people will be admitted at a time. Overall, the state has declined in the number of reported cases. There are some counties that are more "safe" than others (as in cases reported) so the others will have different restrictions. This will be reviewed on the 18th and then new parameters will be posted. Though I would love to be "out in the world again" and to go to those places, I am not ready to take any more chances than the way I have been doing for the last 3 months. Yes, I said 3 months, because for the first part, I had a surgery that left me "non-weight bearing" (foot surgery) for the first 2 months. So, just as I was ready to get out there, this started. I now go out 1 time a week to get groceries. I go at slow times, and wear a mask, etc. I am going to stay in that mode until I see how the phase goes, and how responsible all are with these new freedoms. Being conservative is a small price to pay for a healthy environment. We took it for-granted before all this started, and I am looking forward to getting back to normal (whatever that turns out to be). I know I will appreciate it way more then, than I would now, if things take a step backward, because some were not responsible. I am in a high risk group, so I do need to be careful, but I just hope that everyone else stays careful and respectful with this phase, so that we can all move forward.

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It's called passive aggressive behavior, lol. Typical of her and I'm not upset, I find it both weird and funny.

@Bena wrote:

Shop-et-al: Unless it's hidden I don't see any posts from someone named Shouter. If you are referring to JASFLAMT, why would you call her 'shouter'? In my opinion all that is going to do is get people upset needlessly.
Mmm?????



@JASFLALMT wrote:

@shouter? I had nothing in caps. WTF. Geeze.

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler
Shop-et-al & JASFLALMT:
How about both of you just cease reading/commenting on each other's posts? I don't know about others but not reading the constant jibes all the time would help keep my blood pressure down.
Jazzgirl: "I just hope that everyone else stays careful and respectful with this phase, so that we can all move forward." My sentiments exactly
Bena, it's been going on for a few years. And I've toggled her a few times in the past, but then someone else commented on some snide and snarky remarks that she had made about me so I untoggled to read them. Sorry if anyone doesn't like it, truly I am. Just toggle me.
A lot of the problem here is that I think many people expected closing the economy and sheltering in place to END the virus transmission and 'Win the War'. They will view the measures taken as a failure because there is still virus out there. I myself am disappointed that we have not seen a significant DECLINE in new cases, even though I know that the measures were only intended to SLOW the increases in cases. It is hard to be patient.

Measures taken have 'flattened the curve', but we all were on different parts of the curve to start with. What is truly important is that during this period the medical community has been able to share amongst themselves what treatments are and are not working. This will increase the chances for all of us getting through the illness part of this relatively unscathed, but it is not the time to ditch our masks and sanitizers and go about our business as if the virus never existed.

We were not big on crowds, malls, beauty salons, bars, bowling, tattoo places etc. before the virus and are unlikely to be there even if the virus completely disappeared tomorrow. Different strokes for different folks.

It is obvious that there will not be ample or even adequate testing made available by the government--federal or state--to isolate carriers and those with low level infection. In my area the 'confirmed' cases demographics have drifted to being pretty representational of the actual demographics except when it comes to race.
JASFLAMT: I don't want to toggle you. You make lots of good and interesting posts. I am not very good at biting my tongue (otherwise I probably wouldn't have even started these posts) so I understand how hard it can be.
My governor WAS doing a great job. I don't like that he is going to start opening up Ohio in May. IMO, it's too soon. I get that people need money and some went to go back to work. But we are going to have a spike in new cases as a result, I'm sure of it. He also on Monday had said he was going to mandare that masks must be worn by customers in retail stores when they open but yesterday he backed off ans said it was going to be a request and not a requirement (other than employees). That sucks and makes me not want to go out in public, because you know that some selfish, inconsiderate people won't wear them.
@JASFLALMT wrote:

I get that people need money and some went to go back to work. But we are going to have a spike in new cases as a result, I'm sure of it.
I agree on both counts.

What annoys me is that none of the "experts" seem to acknowledge that even though at least some retail businesses may open, it does not necessarily mean that customers--Joe & Jane Consumer--will readily patronize them.

EVERYONE needs money, and that means that people are going to think twice before making any unnecessary purchases, rendering the opening of small retail stores fruitless at this time.

Those who venture out to return to work have my sympathy; I understand their need to make money. Those who venture out just for "retail therapy" or to "do lunch" are playing Russian Roulette.

I'm old. I'm staying home for now. Be safe, everyone!
Who is Hatfield and who is McCoy? smiling smiley

@JASFLALMT wrote:

Bena, it's been going on for a few years.
@Flash wrote:

A lot of the problem here is that I think many people expected closing the economy and sheltering in place to END the virus transmission and 'Win the War'. They will view the measures taken as a failure because there is still virus out there. I myself am disappointed that we have not seen a significant DECLINE in new cases, even though I know that the measures were only intended to SLOW the increases in cases. It is hard to be patient.

Measures taken have 'flattened the curve', but we all were on different parts of the curve to start with. What is truly important is that during this period the medical community has been able to share amongst themselves what treatments are and are not working. This will increase the chances for all of us getting through the illness part of this relatively unscathed, but it is not the time to ditch our masks and sanitizers and go about our business as if the virus never existed.

We were not big on crowds, malls, beauty salons, bars, bowling, tattoo places etc. before the virus and are unlikely to be there even if the virus completely disappeared tomorrow. Different strokes for different folks.

It is obvious that there will not be ample or even adequate testing made available by the government--federal or state--to isolate carriers and those with low level infection. In my area the 'confirmed' cases demographics have drifted to being pretty representational of the actual demographics except when it comes to race.

A crucial number is the R0 value (the number of people an infected person passes the virus along to), Flash. If it is ABOVE 1, then the growth curve mathematically becomes exponential and cases get out of hand.



The difference between 1 and .9 is mathematically significant. You can stop growing new cases at .9, but not with 1. I didn't know this until reading here: [www.bbc.com]

@ wrote:

Why is a number above one dangerous?
If the reproduction number is higher than one, then the number of cases increases exponentially - it snowballs like debt on an unpaid credit card.

But if the number is lower, the disease will eventually peter out as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak.

One thing I'm looking for is how other countries going off lockdown have fared. Germany recently reported a spike in new cases:

[nypost.com] (April 29th)

@ wrote:

Germany recorded a spike in its coronavirus infection rate after starting to gradually relax lockdowns, according to a report.

COVID-19 patients in Germany were infecting an average of 0.7 other people before the country allowed small businesses to reopen earlier this month, Sky News reported.

But following the first step to resuming a normal life, the rate jumped up to 0.96, according to the report.

Experts warned the rate is dangerously close to the golden standard of 1.0 that countries should aim to stay below to keep the outbreak manageable.

It's so tough to model, because countries are different:

--population demographics (age, health, poverty, etc.)
--population density (more cities...suburbs...rural areas?)
--degree of public cooperation in safety measures (masks, social distancing, etc.)
--degree of health officials/government safety measures (contact tracing and effective testing)
--degree of businesses reopening
--weather***

***Yes, I know this is debatable as a factor for inhibiting the spread of COVID-19 as easily, but it's a possibility that hasn't been ruled out, even if there isn't consensus by scientists.

The hope is that we'll be wiser after opening back up a bit, so that the R0 rate can go below 1. I do worry about the U.S. for cultural reasons. There is a proportion of the population that holds an "it's my right" mentality that can betray them in times like this. Liberty has always been what's made America great. But sometimes it can work against you if the people are "too questioning" of being told to do certain things - like wear masks, social distance, and shelter in place (don't go out for unnecessary things). In many Asian countries, there's been quick obedient response to government recommended/imposed safety measures. There is something cultural to that, which sometimes work for and against them. Here in the U.S., I've seen people with extreme diverging views and practices. There is a no-fear crowd and "rule-ignoring/ignorant crowd" (these two categories between the "and" aren't necessarily the same) on one side and then a very conscientious, safety first crowd on the other side (that's probably me). And you have everything in between. The hope is that the efforts of the safety-first crowd don't get ruined by the people who go right back out and initiating contact with others without thinking of safety first when we re-open.
More on R0 from here: [www.nytimes.com] (April 23rd)
@ wrote:

Does an R0 below 1 mean the virus is defeated?

No. It means, assuming the numbers are correct, that the virus’s spread has been paused.

Where R0 drops below 1, this means that every, say, 100 sick people will infect fewer than 100 others. Each successive generation of infections will be smaller than the last.

But people can still get sick, and people can still die. It can take a long time for countries to see the virus fully recede, especially if the initial outbreak was bad.

Italy, for example, recently estimated that its social and economic restrictions had pushed the virus’s R0 down to 0.8 — a huge achievement won at a heavy cost.

How long might it take Italy to resemble South Korea, which is tentatively reopening as it confirms about 10 new cases per day?

Italy reported 15,918 new cases in the past five days, a workable shorthand for the number of people who might still be infectious. At an R0 of 0.8, it would take 26.8 generations of the virus for Italy’s new infections to pace South Korea’s.


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/30/2020 08:24PM by shoptastic.
It takes two people to have a feud and i dont care enough to be angry. It's kind of like a fruit fly. Annoying a little, but harmless. Just swat it and move on.

All I know is that she's been following me around the forum stalking me and making snarky comments for a couple of years. No idea why. I usually just toggle uninteresting people.

@MSF wrote:

Who is Hatfield and who is McCoy? smiling smiley

@JASFLALMT wrote:

Bena, it's been going on for a few years.
Look how Sweden is handling it. Ugh.

@Opanel wrote:

@JASFLALMT wrote:

I get that people need money and some went to go back to work. But we are going to have a spike in new cases as a result, I'm sure of it.
I agree on both counts.

What annoys me is that none of the "experts" seem to acknowledge that even though at least some retail businesses may open, it does not necessarily mean that customers--Joe & Jane Consumer--will readily patronize them.

EVERYONE needs money, and that means that people are going to think twice before making any unnecessary purchases, rendering the opening of small retail stores fruitless at this time.

Those who venture out to return to work have my sympathy; I understand their need to make money. Those who venture out just for "retail therapy" or to "do lunch" are playing Russian Roulette.

I'm old. I'm staying home for now. Be safe, everyone!
U.S. reports highest single day death count today. Nearly 3,000 died in 24 hours.
[www.cnbc.com]
@ wrote:

The US just reported its deadliest day for coronavirus patients as states reopen, according to WHO

The U.S. saw 2,909 people die of Covid-19 in 24 hours, according to the data, which was collected as of 4 a.m. ET on Friday.

Texas has three straight days of 1,000+ new cases.
[www.cnbc.com]
@ wrote:

Texas reported more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases for the third straight day as the state heads into its first weekend of reopening the economy with limited measures.

The Texas Department of Health reported 1,293 new positive cases of Covid-19 on Saturday, which is its second highest single-day infection rate. This also marks the first time Texas has recorded more than 1,000 cases three days in a row.

Texas now has a total of 30,552 positive cases and 847 fatalities. The spike in infection rate comes after Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order on April 28 allowing certain businesses to reopen on May 1.

Texas and U.S. set to re-open some areas. sad smiley
What could possibly go wrong?

February: First known COVID-19 U.S. death. Official cases were under 1,000.
May 2, 2020: We now have 1M+ official cases and 66,000+ official deaths.
August/September ?????

Assuming 50,000 STILL infectious people (just a random number I came to out of the 1M+ - it could be much lower or much higher), the base of our curve would be MUCH higher than back in February. Yes, many more people have had COVID-19 now and may have immunity. But the potential to grow seems still there. If sub-1,000 cases became 1M+ in a couple of months, what will 50,000 cases be by August if we open back up now?

Will a "careful," staggered opening help? Will more mask wearing and social distancing awareness help? Will summer weather help?

Or, will we get a second wave that is possibly worse than the first?

Edited 7 time(s). Last edit at 05/02/2020 09:14PM by shoptastic.
covid, schmovid, I am staying in this afternoon because it is hailing!

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler
@Shop-et-al wrote:

covid, schmovid, I am staying in this afternoon because it is hailing!

Hi, forum friend

[www.cnbc.com]

@ wrote:

Small towns and rural hospitals brace for their coronavirus peak, which could be weeks away

“The epicenter of this outbreak really has shifted into the smaller rural areas, small counties in western Nebraska,” Dr. Angela Hewlett, a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, said.

Weeks to hit the peak

While hospitalizations related to Covid-19 have started to decelerate in some cities, suggesting the worst may be over, it could take the virus weeks to peak in more rural communities across the U.S., health officials warn. Some hospitals haven’t had enough medical personnel for decades, are already operating at full capacity or are filling up quickly and don’t have enough ventilators to handle a surge of critically ill patients, they say.

Check out this article Shopetal and other rural dwellers. Your case peaks could be coming.
If we shut down this state's tourism and we (this state's residents) do not travel except for approved purposes during which we continue to observe safety measures, there will be no significant rise or peak. I do not decide this, however. I merely mention this as the antidote to possible seasonal travel-related spikes.

Staycay!


What.


Are you listening, tptb? smiling smiley

p.s. This means no route out-of state shoppers, auditors, merchers, and/or route shoppers. Sorry, everyone.

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/04/2020 11:44AM by Shop-et-al.
[www.cnbc.com]
Sobering numbers projected (7:02 PM):

@ wrote:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates nearly 135,000 coronavirus deaths in the US through the beginning of August, citing the easing of lockdown orders as the main driver of the new number, Reuters reports.

The forecast from the IHME puts the U.S. death toll through early August at 134,475, the midrange between 95,092 and 242,890.


The new projections reflect reopening measures underway across the country and the increase of social contact between people that will increase transmission, the IHME said, according to Reuters.

“This new model is the basis for the sobering new estimate of U.S. deaths,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said about the reopening measures, Reuters reported. —Chris Eudaily


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/04/2020 11:57PM by shoptastic.
Even as stats are being compiled, there are issues surrounding covid testing and reporting causes of death. There is not 100% accuracy or even a presumed reliability in either necessary factor. The accuracy of testing and reporting causes of death matter when compiling statistics about the dratted disease. Unless and until all confounding factors are identified and all supporting or feeder information is clarified, the stats will be questionable and unreliable. I hope that someone can clear up all that information soon.

Meanwhile, I will carry on with my masks and my gloves and enjoy what I do. smiling smiley

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler
I'm someone who plans on staying inside as long as I can with the occasional outing to go to my mailbox, pick up food, and walk my dog. I don't expect to not catch this, as I need to prepare for the worse, but I'd rather keep myself COVID free as long as I can in order to give doctors and scientists more time to figure out the best course of action for people who are hospitalized. It's been almost two months since I've been behind closed doors and they've learned a lot. I know that they'll know more two months from now.

I know people who believe that "life is too short" to stay indoors, but I also know that time flies. This will eventually be over, hopefully with my lungs still providing my body with enough oxygen. Keep in mind that I'm someone who knows people who tested positive and very little symptoms to someone who lost a limb and has been in a coma for over 30 days now.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/09/2020 05:35AM by AnonymousGirl.
I went outdoors and saw broken planters on the ground. Apparently, recent strong wind had blown them off their perches and sent them crashing down to the ground. So if I want plants on the porch this year, I will have to get new planters to replace the broken ones. I will wear my mask and my gloves and go in search of homes for real, live, growing, blooming things that will liven up my small outdoor space. Long live life, in all its forms!

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler
Waiting to see how business's fare with the opening's...I trust both our Mayor and Governor.
I understand people NEED to work, rent need's to be paid etc. I am hopeful CA can pull this off with our strigent rules and changes in place. Back to a new normal is the goal.

Live consciously....
Yes. California is a different world compared to here. CA actually has stuff. And people! grinning smiley But some common issues have been worked out according to business type and available space. In some spaces, it is possible and easy to keep people covered and separated. In others, not so much. I still want tourism shut down for this entire state until next summer at the earliest. OTOH, we have national treasures and tucked away idylls that people like to see. Some road-trippers traverse most of the state to get there. If they are sick or asymptomatic, they might spread their stuff throughout a previously (almost completely) healthy state. People could wait another year for their visits. One reason to do this is to protect the especially vulnerable tribal populations. They have exceptionally high risk. They already have a small space. We cannot undo the history of that, but we can respect the space limitations as much as possible so their risks might disappear altogether.

If a composer could say what he had to say in words he would not bother trying to say it in music. - Gustav Mahler


Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/09/2020 10:47PM by Shop-et-al.







@ wrote:


Llamas have long been coveted in the scientific community for their ability to produce something that humans don't have: specialized, and very tiny, disease-fighting antibodies known as nanobodies. . . . .

In 2016, researchers from the US and Belgium focused their study on llamas — specifically Winter — to find an antibody that could be used to broadly neutralize multiple types of coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS.

To conduct the study, the researchers injected Winter with both SARS and MERS viruses, and then took a sample of her blood. Though the researchers were unable to find one broad antibody to fight both viruses, they found that Winter produced two strong antibodies to fight the viruses separately.

The researchers were in the middle of finalizing the study when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. So they transitioned their work to focus on the new coronavirus to see if the same antibodies that fought SARS and MERS would be effective at stopping this coronavirus.

The results were promising. The researchers found that Winter's antibodies effectively blocked the novel coronavirus in cell cultures.

The researchers are moving toward clinical trials for possible COVID-19 treatments. "There is still a lot of work to do to try to bring this into the clinic," Saelens told The Times. "If it works, llama Winter deserves a statue."


Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/10/2020 10:09PM by shoptastic.
Yes, JAS, I saw that! I'm encourage by it, because I currently take 5000 IUs of Vit D a day, and have ever since I started on the Arimidex back in 2014. The Arimidex put me from osteopenia into osteoporosis for a while, but after taking several supplements specifically for the bones, along with the Vit D, I went back into osteopenia. And even with taking 5000 IUs of Vit D a day for 5 years, my last Vit D level, done almost 2 years ago now, was within a great range for a normal limit. I was afraid it would be too high. I need to get another Vit D level done sometime this year. But maybe it's helped me, along with the Zinc and high dose of Vit C I take daily, along with many other supplements that I've been taking for over 6 years now. They certainly can't hurt!!
Maybe that's why kids aren't being affected as much. They usually drink more milk (which comes with Vitamin D) than adults do.
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