@msimon-2000 wrote:
Shoptastic,
Looking at the chart raises a couple of interesting questions:
#1 Every single country on the chart is in the Northern Hemisphere and nearing the tail end of winter.
#2 One of the most populated countries on earth, India, isn't on the list.
#3 Neither is one of the largest land masses in the Northern Hemisphere, Russia. Also, Russia is nestled between many of the world's hot-spots, yet they have been largely unaffected.
Just a few things that stood out to me.
My totally non-scientific, amateur hat is on for these comments:
Russia is bordered by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. If I am not mistaken, these are countries with harsh terrains and a spread out landscape and populace (not very densely populated). Russia is like that as well in many areas, I believe. If so, that could explain a slower rate of transmission. You need to be in contact with droplets of an infected person's fluids. If people are not in close contact with each other, that could prevent the spread. Not sure about their flights in and out of China either.
Italy, on the other hand, had direct flights in and out of Wuhan. They have many densely populated areas and failed to have a testing and contact tracing protocol in place early on. That is contrary to Hong Kong and Singapore, which are two of the most densely populated places in the world and are hot and humid. They had aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation early on.
I definitely think places like Russia could serve as counter-examples of the heat/humidity/sunlight theory, based on non-weather factors that explain the low rates. BUT, it also seems like you cannot dismiss the H/H/S theory either, because those same factors may mean they are not a good example nation.
I think, ideally, you'd want countries with similar features that VARY ONLY/PRIMARILY by H/H/S. Italy vs. Singapore doesn't entirely work, b/c Italy didn't test and trace.
So, yeah, I'm not sure what to make of things. I only hang on to HOPE that the H/H/S theory has validity. But, practically, it's probably best that we just pretend that it's not true and prepare for the worst (trying to avoid it, obviously).
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/20/2020 02:01AM by shoptastic.