Italy has 17,000 infected and 1,200 deaths now.
They have gone parabolic. The U.S. case growth rate has seemed to mirror Italy's with a lag. We are about one week behind Italy's case growth rate:
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twitter.com]
See graph: MOST Western nations are on the SAME trajectory.*** If the parallels hold, as they are across most Western nations, we need to be extra vigilant. If it were up to me, I'd establish a 3-5 foot social distancing rule.

Alas, I am not Trump with executive order powers.
***Hong Kong and Singapore are outliers/anomalies, b/c their officials took very aggressive actions quickly. They didn't play around, probably having lived through SARS and it's misery. Other nations seemed too cavalier about it early on. Japan is the weird case.
For those who don't understand exponential growth - a la Trump ( ‘What’s the fuss, it’s just like the flu,’ and ‘There are only 15 cases, and only one death in the U.S., much fewer than everywhere else, we’re doing great,’), see this article from NYT yetersday:
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www.nytimes.com]
Once you hit a certain point, it's like going from 0 to 60 in your car. The cases mathematically will explode upwards. Hoping we don't get that and I turn out to be a laughing stock Debby Downer, but it's what experts have been warning about. That we haven't seen many cases NOW (btw, we don't have many cases, b/c we also HAVEN'T been testing, DUH!) doesn't mean that won't grow massively in short order.
@ wrote:
The graph illustrates the results of a thought experiment. It assumes constant 30 percent growth throughout the next month in an epidemic like the one in the U.S. right now, and compares the results of stopping one infection today — by actions such as shifting to online classes, canceling of large events and imposing travel restrictions — versus taking the same action one week from today. . .
The magnitude of the outbreak creeps up on you; it doesn’t look like things are growing very much, and then suddenly they are. Today, the U.S. is up to at least 1,714 known cases and we’re only a couple of days on from when it was 1,004. It’s going to be 4,000 by Monday, and then it’s going to be 8,000 by next Wednesday, and then it’s…. Exponential growth is staggering when it takes over.
***Fear spreading lecture over...semi-kidding only...it's a serious issue, esp. for the infirm and elderly***
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2020 10:41PM by shoptastic.