From somebody living in Seattle.....Here are the reasons that COVID-19 is (currently) scarier than the seasonal flu, H1N1, etc.:
* Currently we do not have any treatments for it. We can alleviate symptoms, but are at least a year away from having vaccinations, anti-viral drugs, etc.
* It is incredibly contagious - more so than H1N1 or the flu. The CDC and WHO estimate that it's contamination's exponential growth constant is somewhere between 1.15 and 1.25 when using "days" as a unit for time. In other words: the number of actual people infected doubles ever 4-6 days. (the number of actual cases is very different than the number of confirmed cases.)
* We don't know how many people in the United States are actually infected as we have done very little testing. The first death in the U.S. was somebody who had been dead for several days before it was determined that he had COVID-19. At that point, the CDC estimates that the virus had been in the U.S. for at least six weeks.
* Unlike the flu, H1N1, etc., it is not uncommon for young healthy people who are infected to be almost completely asymptomatic. Of course they are very much still contagious.
* This coronavirus does kill. Scientists do not know the actual death rate, but some estimates are that it is as high as 3.4% of all infected people. More conservative estimates are between 1% and 2%. We will not know the "actual" rate of mortality for some time. However, the seasonal flu is roughly .1% (one tenth the most conservative rates for COVID-19).
* Right now, in the U.S. between 15% and 20% of infected people require hospitalization. If COVID-19 continues to spread at its current pace, we will not have enough hospital space ore medical equipment (such as respirators) to serve those in need. If we reach that point, the mortality rate will rise.
Folks, this thing is coming - we are just at the beginning of it in the United States. We don't need to panic, but we do need to take it seriously. How many lives it will claim is yet to be determined. If we take it seriously with social distancing, good hygiene, etc. we can greatly slow it's spread - which will reduce the number of folks who get infected and allow our health care systems better keep up with need. If we ignore it,it will be bad.
Here is some of the math:
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