@Shop-et-al wrote:
It will take at least a year to learn any useful information about the first batches and tested vaccines. It is early days in that process.
I was in a store recently that posted the maximum number of persons they were permitting to be there at any given, open time. I didn't think they could fit that many people in the store, even if they were all smushed together and not observing six feet of space. Who knew!?
@shoptastic wrote:
@Insight wrote:
I shopped at Aldi this morning. They are allowing a small number of patrons in at a time, cleaning the carts when they are returned, actually putting the quarters in the slots and allowing patrons to go only one way down the aisles. They are enforcing the 6 foot distance and also have senior hours. Walmart has curb service but it is for several days out and may do that next time I need to order.
If it were up to me, I'd extend these practices UNTIL we get
a.) a vaccine (the gold standard);
b.) have sufficient herd immunity;
c.) get effective immunity testing; and/or
d.) get a very effective therapeutic(s)
I worry these measures (like the cashier shields and senior hours) will go away in the fall of this year (or sooner?).
Hoping we can extend these measures for as long as need be.
Yeah, vaccines take a long time - usually a decade. In emergencies like COVID-19, a promising candidate can be fast-tracked through various approval stages (with the understanding certain unknowns and risks with the vaccine may be present). That is what people will be trying to do with a COVID-19 vaccine. And 1-1.5 years for an "approved, fast-tracked" vaccine would be on the optimistic side!! It could certainly take longer. Even after an approved candidate, there is the problem of mass production and getting it out to people quickly. That is an issue right now. I can only hope we are working on solving that production capacity problem.
In the meantime, I hope therapeutics will help with lowering the fatality and serious complications rate.
re: herd immunity
One very, very ...not-so (??) long-shot...that I'm hoping for is that our case rate is much more understated than we presume. That would mean:
a.) the real fatality rate is likely lower (as many more people have it than officially reported)
b.) the path to herd immunity may be closer
re: b.)
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the number of cellphone users dropped by 21 million in February 2020 compared with November 2019. That has been a source of much speculation that China's case and death counts have been vastly underreported. China has officially said they have/had:
82,000 cases
3,500 deaths
It could be true, but my first reaction is: REEEEEEEEALLLLLLY??? 1.4 billion citizens and you managed to have so few cases and deaths? There were reports that people were dying in the streets and cremated without being reported in the official statistics. There were videos of people getting hauled out of their apartments and homes if their temperatures were showing a fever and detained. Reports have it that people in detention died without being reported as having COVID-19.
Yes, we may never know, but the circumstantial evidence points to a much higher case and death rate than what China is telling the world.
Back to that 21 million fewer cell phone user statistic. That doesn't have to mean 21 million have died or have COVID-19 hospitalizations. But a percentage of that 21 million could very well reflect those results. Some people just might be out of a job and cannot pay their bill, etc. Hard to know for sure. But, the theory is that many of those "lost users" were COVID-19 patients who didn't get counted in the official numbers.
IF THAT IS TRUE, maybe the R0 (transmission rate from one person to others) is much higher than we think and/or the case rate is much higher than we think and much more people have already been infected with COVID-19. We didn't have (and don't have) adequate, large-scale testing. And many people can be asymptomatic.
I can only hope many more people have had COVID-19 already and have recovered with immunity than we think. That would bring us closer to herd immunity. However, without solid evidence, I'd err on the side of caution and not necessarily factor that into our response.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2020 05:01PM by shoptastic.