May 1? Later than that?

It would be helpful to know if I already have antibodies and whether I am non-contagious. If this were true I would be roaming freely but there is so much contradictory info out there about testing, immunity, etc., that I just don't know. I would, and did, feel safe already.

I'm hoping June 1st but suspect it could be longer.

And how about the possibility of becoming reinfected?

There is no way to really know.... We are all anxious to get back into normal routines, but if we do so too early, we'll just revive the infection and have to start all over again.... Where I am, we've been practicing social distancing for better than a month already with schools canceled since March 13 and stay-at-home orders in place since March 23. The soonest we can home to get out and about is May 4, but that is wishful thinking: We've almost flattened the curve in Washington, but have yet to hit our peak, so it will be several more weeks, at the least, until the virus has run its course. Even once it has cleared up here, it will not be safe to return to normal business as other states are going to be on different timelines and it only takes one infected person traveling through the area to start the entire travesty over again.

There are some states where the amount of social distancing appears to be minimal and the governors have not put any sort of restrictive orders into place, so either the population will choose to social distance on their own - or the infection rate in the state will continue to explode. I worry about next weekend: There are a number of areas where Easter services are continuing this weekend and Easter services in Christian churches are always very crowded. It is almost inconceivable that many of these services will have at least one infected attendee, which could lead to a huge uptick in cases by next week - and beyond.

There is also a tremendous amount of pressure to get commerce up an running again. Let's face it: people are hurting now and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. There are going to be a lot of folks who push to re-open business as we start to get to the tail end of this. (Heck, there are folks pushing for it now.) If we re-open too early, all efforts to date will be for naught as the virus will take hold again. I think Dr. Fauci is correct when he says that we will not really be "normal" again until we have a vaccine.

So 18 to 24 months (for the vaccine).

Asking when and suggesting that be answered with a date specific is foolish. Before we can have a return to normal, we must have a restoration of the primacy of truth, science, and ethical behavior. A widespread testing regime and an effective vaccination program requires such a return to intelligent decency. As long as there are fools saying the facts, science, and decency ought take a second place to denialism, snake oil remedies, and an attitude that short term profit is more important than human life we will be plagued with cycles of surging illness and death.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2020 03:07PM by Rousseau.

I am not afraid now. I will not become afraid. So there will not be that sort of change for me.

However, I will avoid emergency rooms. By now you heard what happened to the 86-year-old... and you might well be pleased because I was not on hand to blast anyone for their murderous response. I am working on kind words and deep understanding, you know, and that kind of @#$%@^$ would just tempt me to backslide into teliln' it like it is...

It's NOT about being afraid, SEA. It's about being socially responsible during a highly contagious pandemic. You can be an asymptomatic carrier and unwittingly (no pun intended) transmit the disease to an elderly or immune compromised individual and kill them.

I do think that, though it will be a long time until we are able to return to "normal," we'll be able to start safely venturing out more once we have widespread testing - so we can routinely (and quickly) identify infected individuals (including those who are asymptomatic) and keep them isolated. From what I can tell (reading between the lines of contradictory statements), we are not anywhere close to developing this.

But the OP specifically asked us how we will feel. My feelings will not change.

My behavior has changed and may change again.

@MSF wrote:

When will you feel safe regularly going out in public again?

The OP asked, "When will you feel safe regularly going out in public again?" So you feel safe going out in public, and you are not afraid. That's morally dangerous ground.

I personally would not feel safe going out in public currently because I could cause harm to others. If I were to contract the virus, I could pass it on to my MIL, who has health issues and is elderly, or my sister, who has an immune compromised system. It's just been a little over 2 weeks of self-isolation so I could not visit with them. I haven't been within 10 feet of another person other than my husband since March 26th.

Point of fact: The virus is especially dangerous to the elderly and those with "underlying health conditions." "Underlying health conditions" does include all sorts of common maladies, such as diabetes. With the issue we have a nation of obesity, I would suggest that we have a LOT of younger folks with "underlying health conditions."

Moreover, young, healthy folks are not immune form this thing. Many have been hospitalized. Some have died. Nobody should feel "safe" venturing into public right now.

Maybe next fall when the kids go back to school.

They have convinced me that anyone can be an asymptomatic carrier. I also don't want to start going out if someone decides that restarting the economy is more inportant than possible loss of life. In our town in NY, there are a few hundred cases. My county has about 20k cases and 700 deaths. In PA, the entire state has 16k and about 300 deaths. So, the county alone in NY has double the deaths compared to the state. I don't want to go back to my house in NY until we need to. NY has not shut down school for the year, so the date might be April 29th when we go back. I'm scared. I would rather wait until September. Seventeen states have closed, but NY, which has it the worst, is still open.

That's just nuts.

Plus, now they are talking about a second wave of infections so that implies a long road ahead.

I'm not going out until there is a vaccine, or alternately, a treatment. Period.

I certainly will not feel safe just because the government tells me it is safe to be out and about. I have no doubt that greed and political expediency will have the 'all clear' sounded long before it is safe. I moderately trust the numbers from my state's Department of Health and from the Johns Hopkins statistical website [systems.jhu.edu] and these still show the number of new cases rising on a daily basis. In my state more than 10% of those tested test positive. China did not gain control until about 1% of those tested tested positive. Locally we have just had 4 test positive in a single grocery store's employee roster.

I will not feel safe until I know that I have immunity.

Let's back up a few leaps..

I was blessed with a spirit of love, which is stronger than fear. Long before COVID-19, I stopped being a fear-based person. This does not make me unaware of the various incidents and risks of COVID-19 for me and others, but it enables me to approach all of life in a non-fear way. Was this what you were trying to say was immoral? In your view, is living with love that is stronger than fear immoral?

@JASFLALMT wrote:

The OP asked, "When will you feel safe regularly going out in public again?" So you feel safe going out in public, and you are not afraid. That's morally dangerous ground.

I personally would not feel safe going out in public currently because I could cause harm to others. If I were to contract the virus, I could pass it on to my MIL, who has health issues and is elderly, or my sister, who has an immune compromised system. It's just been a little over 2 weeks of self-isolation so I could not visit with them. I haven't been within 10 feet of another person other than my husband since March 26th.

Yes, but remember that the clock on that actually started in November or December. So it could just be another year or so.

@JASFLALMT wrote:

So 18 to 24 months (for the vaccine).

You know perfectly well what I am talking about, don't pretend to be obtuse.

Are you trying to say that your "love" is so strong it's going to prevent you from getting other people possibly sick by going out in public and ignoring the fact you could be an asymptomatic carrier of this virus? That's not love. That's irresponsible.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

I was blessed with a spirit of love, which is stronger than fear. Long before COVID-19, I stopped being a fear-based person. This does not make me unaware of the various incidents and risks of COVID-19 for me and others, but it enables me to approach all of life in a non-fear way. Was this what you were trying to say was immoral? In your view, is living with love that is stronger than fear immoral?

@JASFLALMT wrote:

The OP asked, "When will you feel safe regularly going out in public again?" So you feel safe going out in public, and you are not afraid. That's morally dangerous ground.

I personally would not feel safe going out in public currently because I could cause harm to others. If I were to contract the virus, I could pass it on to my MIL, who has health issues and is elderly, or my sister, who has an immune compromised system. It's just been a little over 2 weeks of self-isolation so I could not visit with them. I haven't been within 10 feet of another person other than my husband since March 26th.

JAS, you are so wonderful with cooking. Now, please bring that same sort of cleverness to this thread. If you can do that, you can stop asking me silly questions about things you are making up and then trying to use as fodder for blaming me for being obtuse. Can you do that?

But if you need more (otherwise, why would you ask) I will paraphrase someone who was tortured by nuts who just could not see another point of view. My friend died shortly before COVID-19. 'Even when they are being unloving, I am going to choose love'.

@kimmiemae wrote:

Plus, now they are talking about a second wave of infections so that implies a long road ahead.

If additional "Stay at Home" orders are forthcoming, this could really be the collapse of the world's economy.... In regards to the US, is the expectation for the fed's to QE until the point where the dollar truly becomes hyperinflated?

I've seen a reference to an infection rate quotient called R0, pronounced "R-naught". It quantifies the rate at which each infected person infects others. As long as the R0 is greater than 1, we deepen our chasm as we circulate. Once it drops below 1 (R0=0.x) we know the virus is in decline.

Current estimates are the Covid-19 has an R0 of about 5.7. In simple terms that means that one infected person can be expected to infect almost six others easily if exposed. If conditions exist to allow it, the pool grows rather than shrinks.

[www.healthline.com]
[wwwnc.cdc.gov]

They are saying that about 25% of people who test positive are completely asymptomatic and remain so, and that such persons can spread it to others. So potentially anyone could have been exposed, have it now, or have had it in the past despite not having any symptom at all. That also means that maybe I've already had it. Maybe you have, too.

When we have science based answers about whether a person can be re-infected and an antibody test so we could tell if we already have been exposed that will go a long way. Without those I can't imagine what would make me comfortable being out and about. Wishful thinking and spin certainly won't get me there.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2020 10:02PM by JustForFun.

I went out before to shop for my mom. About 80% of the people were wearing some form of covering. Many of them had the N94 masks. At least people are taking this seriously and are trying to stop the spread. This is in PA, where we don't have that many cases compared to other areas.

I don't know whete they bought those or the surgical masks. I ordered some from China which will likely get here in two months. A

Why is it foolish to pose that question? As things stand now, we are being told by the president that the country will reopen May 1. Not long ago, the date he gave was Easter. As things sit now, I cannot imagine being out in public regularly beginning May 1. I read that most Americans are in the same camp. It took at least three months for China to reopen, and people there are still wearing masks out in public. I am hoping that by the beginning of summer, public spaces will be open and it will be considered safe to be out regularly in public. At this point, it does not look like MSCs and their clients are banking on May 1.

@Rousseau wrote:

Asking when and suggesting that be answered with a date specific is foolish. Before we can have a return to normal, we must have a restoration of the primacy of truth, science, and ethical behavior. A widespread testing regime and an effective vaccination program requires such a return to intelligent decency. As long as there are fools saying the facts, science, and decency ought take a second place to denialism, snake oil remedies, and an attitude that short term profit is more important than human life we will be plagued with cycles of surging illness and death.

Ok, so China physically blocked roads, etc to completely isolate the citizens that they thought were infected. Wuhan just got off lockdown after 11 weeks I think it was. I think that we are looking at the same (or even longer). Ours just started March 16th. Using that analogy we are looking at close to mid-June before we can go back out. Now here is an issue that I would want to be addressed before any of us go back out into society. Disinfectant wipes need to be in widespread availability and hand sanitizer. Without these two mitigators, there's no way I will feel safe. But as for me, myself, and I (and of course my sig other) we will not rejoin the working until this happens and we will actually use hand sanitizer and wipes way more than we ever did before. This will not change even if the government says it's ok.
If any of you use or know someone who uses public transportation, you/yours need to be even more CAUTIOUS. You need to sit by yourself on buses/trains, do not travel during rush hour at all, and carry your very own wipes. Wipe all poles, doors, chairs that you sit on, etc. anywhere that hand even starts to touch. WE can never go back to the "the way we were". That kind of naivety should be gone forever.

Interestingly, whenever I traveled (planes), I always had wipes in my travel bag to wipe down everything I was going to touch (tray table, arm rests, etc.).

My main concern is beyond what I touch, since I don't touch my face anyway (but always carry sanitizer, done that for years). My concern at the moment is respiratory droplets. This social distancing from 6 feet is better than nothing, but it doesn't mean you can't walk into an airspace that a sick person just walked through and not breathe in some of the virus. An asymptomatic person doesn't have to cough to expel virus particulates, all they have to do is exhale. How long do you think it will take for those airborne particulates to drop to the floor so you don't breathe any in? A mask is essential as well. Still not 100%, but I don't want to venture into stores or enclosed buildings without one.

Collapse of the world economy? I doubt that. Massive and fundamental change? Sure. But collapse, as in it is no more? Nope.

We need things. I need things, you need things. Out in the world or here at home, that doesn't change.

I have things that you want. You have things that I want. That too doesn't change just because we are both at home trying hard not to breath or spit on each other.

So let's make a deal! Congratulations, we have an economy.

Will the transition from the old economy to the new one be painful? Yup. The sooner we find our way in the new rather than crying and clinging to the old, the happier we will all be.

@Tarantado wrote:

@kimmiemae wrote:

Plus, now they are talking about a second wave of infections so that implies a long road ahead.

If additional "Stay at Home" orders are forthcoming, this could really be the collapse of the world's economy.... In regards to the US, is the expectation for the fed's to QE until the point where the dollar truly becomes hyperinflated?

@JustForFun wrote:

Collapse of the world economy? I doubt that. Massive and fundamental change? Sure. But collapse, as in it is no more? Nope.

We need things. I need things, you need things. Out in the world or here at home, that doesn't change.

I have things that you want. You have things that I want. That too doesn't change just because we are both at home trying hard not to breath or spit on each other.

So let's make a deal! Congratulations, we have an economy.

Will the transition from the old economy to the new one be painful? Yup. The sooner we find our way in the new rather than crying and clinging to the old, the happier we will all be.

Massive inflation and also a setback for millions of Americans affected by the epidemic, including defaults on loans, foreclosures, if not, forced refinance which could be labeled as a Troubled Debt Restructure (TDR) leading to higher interest rates, lower credit ratings, etc. Yes, very painful.