DO you think the shut down was worth it?

Yesterday, I was struck by the stark dichotomy between professional sports and citizens making decisions as we reopen. My husband and I watched Nascar and a PGA charity golf match. Happy to see live sports again! Precautions were taken to protect both fans and the teams. In SC, there were no fans in the stands at the race track. Crews were abbreviated. Similarly, there were no fans at the golf course in FL. There were no caddies. It was fun watching the camaraderie among the pros as they helped raise money for corona relief. They also carried their own clubs, admitting in good humor that they didn’t remember the last time they had done so.

Later we watched the news. Throngs of people on the beaches and in bars. There was no crowd control, no social distancing and a minority of people were wearing masks at many of the locations shown.

Time will tell.

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saw this article on S. Korea's "secret":

[www.theatlantic.com]

I've seen it debated in other forums that the U.S. would have never tolerated the "intrusive tracking" implemented there. Although, we very easily could have adopted a more aggressive testing, contact tracing, and isolation policy early on.

I'm agnostic on Sweden's approach. Still reading up on it. Undecided. smiling smiley

A relative of mine passed by a bar yesterday here. She said it looked pretty packed. Hope we don't get a big spike in cases a month or two from now, as we're just starting to open up in Virginia.
The US government's response from Federal to State has been terrible.

From the beginning it was known that this virus affects old people and people with underlying conditions. Instead of coming up with a game plan for that population, the whole country was shut down.

The nursing home and older populations have been ravished and no one protected them. My state CT has had an unusual high number of deaths (death count is another story) and the Hartford Courant posted that in one week 90% of the deaths were attributed to nursing homes.

So now you have people of ALL age groups scared out of their mind for something that is like a cold or flu if they get sick with it.

You have kids getting physical and sexually abused at extreme high numbers because their safe guards are gone. Kids are starving because drug use is at an all time high from stress and getting an excessive amount of stimulus payments. You have people mentally losing their minds.

Big business is booming and small businesses have been eliminated.

The US needs to post the death rate by age to give a more clear picture of what is going on. Then protect the older population and let life resume as normal for everyone else.

People die! It's apart of life, we can not live in the house scared forever because of it.

AND THE IDEA THEY WILL HAVE AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE IN A YEAR IS LUDICROUS!!!! It took 15 years to develop the flu shot and it is still only 30-40% effective. Coronavirus is in the family of common colds, they have never developed an effective vaccine for this family of viruses and I doubt they will anytime soon.

People have to let the fear that the media has built up go and start to live life again. Seeing how people are going outside is giving me comfort that not everyone has been trained to be scared shitless.
For clarity the death rate by age when people contracted the virus according to Italy. Also this is not everyone who contracted the virus, just those who tested for it so ALL death rate numbers are significantly lower than what is posted.

Cases Deaths Lethality(%) Number(%) Number
All
199,470 (100.0) 25,215 (100.0) (12.6)
Sex
Male 94,174 (47.3) 15,662 (62.1) (16.6)
Female 104,861 (52.7) 9,553 (37.9) (9.1)
Age
Above 90 15,186 (7.6) 3,755 (14.9) (24.7)
80–89 35,262 (17.7) 10,241 (40.6) (29.0)
70–79 30,158 (15.1) 7,291 (28.9) (24.2)
60–69 27,880 (14.0) 2,727 (10.8) (9.8)
50–59 35,986 (18.0) 918 (3.6) (2.6)
40–49 25,644 (12.9) 224 (0.9) (0.9)
30–39 14,907 (7.5) 49 (0.2) (0.3)
20–29 10,377 (5.2) 8 (0.0) (0.1)
10–19 2511 (1.3) 0 (0.0) (0.0)
0–9. 1478 (0.7) 2 (0.0) (0.1)
We have been reopened a couple of weeks now and the government is jumping into re-opening gyms and lifting the 25% occupancy rates on restaurants. There are some real questions about reported numbers due to some issues of transparency, but here is what has actually been disclosed officially for my specific area: In the week ended 5/10 we had an average of 21 new cases per day; in the week ended 5/17 we had an average of 29 1/2 new cases each day. In the week ended 5/10 we had 23 deaths, in the week ended 5/17 we had 11 deaths.

Apart and aside from any number fudging out there the reality is that the virus is still active in the community, causing hospitalizations and deaths. With the accuracy of testing itself called into question, it is pretty obvious we are not going to test our way out of this with government quarantines. I think the shut downs were required, if for no other reason than to get the public's attention that this virus is a serious threat to public health. What people do with that knowledge is up to them now. This is not Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny where you 'believe' or 'don't believe anymore'. This is more like an equal opportunity Jack the Ripper that should be a warning to stay out of certain locations and situations.

Edited to add in response to Flyy1220: In my area the median age for victims is 55--i.e. half the victims are that age or older, half are that age or younger. This is NOT just impacting the old and infirm. In my area the % male to female victims is pretty representative of the population demographics, as are the % of Black, White and Hispanic. This later information also dismisses notions that it is socio-economically related.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/2020 05:56PM by Flash.
There are so many different aspects with this virus that when the smoke clears I hope the true information is reported. It is currently being reported but is overshadowed by the media's fear agenda.

NYC reported that 80% of people who went on ventilators died and they found out it was because Covid-19 people were lacking oxygen and not having respiratory failure as normally seen. Once they started using different methods to get the oxygen rates up, their number of deaths have dropped dramatically.

The handling of this virus attributed to death more than the virus itself.

If 50-60% are nursing home deaths and another percentage from unnecessary ventilator usage, plus the numbers that have been added for things that people were naturally going to pass from anyway. I think we will find that the resources were wrongly used and distributed and the stay home orders that destroyed small businesses and people's mental health were unnecessary.
We will have to agree to disagree on some parts of this.

It sounds to me as though you are laying the deaths of thousands at the feet of the doctors trying to save them. That I see as profoundly wrong headed. In absence of known remedies or even known effects, the medical community could only treat symptoms. If the standard treatment for a particular symptom was wrong when it appeared as a symptom of COVID, indeed doing their best for the patient may have made it worse. 20/20 hindsight is not helpful in saving the patient but it doesn't constitute malpractice. Perhaps MORE support of the World Health Organization, where medical professionals from all over the world come to share information about disease and treatment, is more productive than loudly voicing intent to cut funding of it.

I don't know where you are getting that 50-60% are nursing home deaths. I am in an area of Florida with lots of retirees and assisted living and 'adult communities' and yet our median age COVID case is 55. When COVID was recently found prevalent in a nursing home in a nearby county, more than 50 were found infected. The death rate there has not spiked. We know that crowds make transmission of the virus easier yet our crowds in senior and nursing facilities and in prisons can not readily be ameliorated so perhaps should have closer attention to testing and isolation of the infected than has been done.

I will agree, however, that the few weeks of isolation have likely changed the middle class employment landscape in this country forever. In two short weeks businesses have discovered how to manage remote employees. This means that for many of those white collar jobs they can just as readily hire people in Canada, India, Hong Kong, China, Nigeria, New Zealand and avoid all those pesky things like vacation days, unemployment insurance, retirement plans, health insurance, etc. Plus salaries in most of the world are below US ones as long as you stay out of most of Europe. I am amused that already Indeed.com is listing 'remote' jobs for a couple of local companies and some even mention 'Good working knowledge of English required'.
"Overall about 60% of Connecticut’s COVID-19 deaths have been nursing home patients — similar numbers to Massachusetts and New Jersey. In Rhode Island the death rate is nearly 70%."

Excerpt from Hartford Courant article from 5/6/2020.

[www.courant.com]

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/2020 07:37PM by Flyy1220.
I would wonder, then. at what stage they discovered there was COVID in the nursing homes. It was outrageous here to discover infection in about a third of the nursing home patients at one location. Nursing home patients fairly frequently get returned to the hospital because the ailment that has debilitated them has flared up again and they get tested for COVID when they get to the hospital ER. If they test positive the whole nursing home is tested--staff and patients. Staff, as low wage, minimally protected workers, have been the vector as they are sent from facility to facility, but our cases mostly are from contagion in the community and most deaths have been travel related who weren't 'too sick to travel' but got back too sick to cure.
Also for reference, my sister who has always struggled with mental health finally got a good job and was going to college. Her job was furloughed and classes moved online.

I hadn't seen her for 2 months and saw her yesterday with my Mom. She weighed 100lbs and looked like skeleton. I was shocked, she stopped eating and is the worse I have ever seen her. She has spiraled deeper into a depression.

With kids mental health issues today because of the internet, I can only assume she is one of millions going through something right now.

IT WAS COMPLETELY WRONG TO SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY!!! In 2 months it has caused so much harm that will be hard to get over.

Anyone who is scared to go outside and thinks the country should continue to be shut down without doing much research on the whole effects are foolish and dangerous people.
Thank you for sharing what the source of your frustration with all this is. I am sorry for your deep concerns for your sister. It does not, however, change the overall shape of things, only your perspective of them.

People are not starving, at least in my area. There are plenty of food pantries operating each day to provide. There are a number of restaurants still providing take away lunches for poor kids too far from their normal school to commute each day to pick up their free breakfast and lunch. Landlords are blocked from evictions for non-payment of rent and mortgage holders from foreclosure for at least another month or two. Credit cards and utilities are working with those short on cash. Social services are busy with government and private funds to help those suddenly stuck in a bind. The world has not come to an end.
I have been researching this since the outbreak in China. I have watched dozens of videos and read 100s of articles from experts.

My experience with this does not stem from my interaction with my sister yesterday. You in FL, which is a state that has been barely affected compared to the population, do not even know what is going on in the worst parts of the country.

I've read articles that the hospital admission rates of abused children are up. The phone calls to the sexual abuse hotline is up and half the calls are from children - unprecedented.

These measures are severely hurting our young people and that is just one sector of the problem.
@Flyy1220 wrote:

My experience with this does not stem from my interaction with my sister yesterday. You in FL, which is a state that has been barely affected compared to the population, do not even know what is going on in the worst parts of the country.

Trust me, we are bombarded by all of the news about the virus, the deaths, the ambulances lined up outside nursing homes, the shortage of body bags, the refrigerated trailers of bodies, the beaches filled with crowds of unmasked folks and the partiers declaring they are young, healthy and at no risk. National news is broadcast across the country and is definitely is focused primarily on what happens in the North East. If Florida is not heavily impacted it is perhaps because we mostly do no live in large, crowded apartment complexes. We have virtually no public transportation. Perhaps it is because we closed the bars and beaches early on and sent the Spring Breakers home. But we have big differences between the East and West coasts of Florida. The East Coast of Florida has more North East attitudes and has been the most infected by COVID. Here on the West coast of the state overall we tend to be patient people--we don't honk at the still stopped car ahead 3 seconds after the light turns green, we are likely to hold the door open not only for our own group but for the folks behind us, we are likely to let someone with 3 items ahead of us in line when our cart is full and the 10 items or less line is closed. That same patience allows us to tolerate the relative inconvenience of staying at home, not only to stay safe but to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. And yes, I too watched COVID in China and daily awaited the beginning of the flattening of their curve. And I watched Italy's inundation with cases and deaths and wondered if my experience with first generation Italians in this country reflected attitudes that were enhancing Italy's woes.

There are things that seem to be generally accepted as fact: The virus is transmitted most easily person to person. With transmission, the virus most frequently transmits on moisture particles from exhalation. 6' social distancing seems appropriate to escape moisture particles from others unless they are breathing hard, talking loudly or singing. Masks prevent the wearer from exhaling moisture droplets onto others and helps protect wearers from the moisture droplets from others.

Today gyms opened here. This evening's local news visited several on reopening. The big gyms aren't opening yet and the small ones explained they needed to reopen or go out of business. NOT A SINGLE MASK IN SIGHT. BUNCHES OF GUYS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SPOTTING FOR EACH OTHER, RUNNING ON TREADMILLS SIDE BY SIDE.

Denial is not a way to deal with a pandemic.
Yes. Shutting down will do massive harm to some people. This is tragic! I believe that in at least a few situations, it is possible to find a happy medium. People who need to be out, about, and among people, might be guided into wearing a mask and keeping six feet between them and other people instead of being forced by the draconian measure of making all persons stay indoors regardless of their ability to be out there in the recommended safe ways. Some people do this new safety thing very well indeed!

So. Prayers upon prayers for your sister and others who might feel better and still be safe if they are helped to navigate this odd new world in ways that are safe and helpful for them. I hope their peeps can be buffers between them and the harshness of the rulings and the meanness of people who would dare to criticize instead of staying away or trying to bridge a gap.


@Flyy1220 wrote:

Also for reference, my sister who has always struggled with mental health finally got a good job and was going to college. Her job was furloughed and classes moved online.

I hadn't seen her for 2 months and saw her yesterday with my Mom. She weighed 100lbs and looked like skeleton. I was shocked, she stopped eating and is the worse I have ever seen her. She has spiraled deeper into a depression.

With kids mental health issues today because of the internet, I can only assume she is one of millions going through something right now.

IT WAS COMPLETELY WRONG TO SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY!!! In 2 months it has caused so much harm that will be hard to get over.

Anyone who is scared to go outside and thinks the country should continue to be shut down without doing much research on the whole effects are foolish and dangerous people.

A painter paints pictures on canvas. But musicians paint their pictures on silence. ― Leopold Stokowski
@Sandy Shopper wrote:

I'd rather be broke than dead.....or watching through a hospital window while a loved one dies. Just about everything except life itself can be brought back to what it once was. Dead is final.

I am old enough to remember when people had the same panic about AIDS. Even after the cause was determined people were still frightened for no reason. You protect your health from Covid19 and other bacteria or viruses by wearing a mask, wearing gloves, washing your hands, don't touch your face, eating right, getting enough sleep, exercising. Step back and look at facts about disease transmission. Just don't believe everything you hear from the media and understand statistics can be altered and faked to get the desired political outcome.
@Flyy1220 wrote:

Also for reference, my sister who has always struggled with mental health finally got a good job and was going to college. Her job was furloughed and classes moved online.

I hadn't seen her for 2 months and saw her yesterday with my Mom. She weighed 100lbs and looked like skeleton. I was shocked, she stopped eating and is the worse I have ever seen her. She has spiraled deeper into a depression.

With kids mental health issues today because of the internet, I can only assume she is one of millions going through something right now.

IT WAS COMPLETELY WRONG TO SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY!!! In 2 months it has caused so much harm that will be hard to get over.

Anyone who is scared to go outside and thinks the country should continue to be shut down without doing much research on the whole effects are foolish and dangerous people.

I will pray for your sister. It pains me to hear how she is being affected. On a personal level, lots and lots of love would be part of my prescription. Sometimes just spending time with someone can mean a lot. Having companionship and a person to talk to and lean on when you're down can be very helpful.

Your post reminds me there is suffering on all sides. There are those who've suffered death of a loved one from COVID-19. And there are those suffering socially, economically, mentally, and even from abuse more during this time.

It's possible there was never going to be a solution to prevent suffering for all. I do wish we could have limited the impact much more here, nonetheless, in the U.S. - on both the economic and the health fronts.
@Flash wrote:

People are not starving, at least in my area. There are plenty of food pantries operating each day to provide. There are a number of restaurants still providing take away lunches for poor kids too far from their normal school to commute each day to pick up their free breakfast and lunch.

That's good of the restaurants. Also, I don't believe there is weekend free meals for the school kids, as we've used certain schools on Sat./Sun. to exercise at. Weekdays we're unable to, due to kids coming in for free meals.

re: starving
Some areas are really hit hard. Mother Jones had a piece I shared with my mom, who didn't believe the photos at first, on what food lines looked like in some areas:
[www.motherjones.com]

San Antonio was one place that was hard hit:


I read some places had asked for the National Guard to come in to protect the workers, as much more people showed up than available food. My area hasn't been hit as hard, due to the government jobs that are likely more stable. On the health front, the rise in positive cases is scaring me in my city.
We have more people passing through on their way to somewhere else and no additional confirmed cases. I still want outsiders to stay away, but we are doing enough, apparently, to stay well. So there is no use in being afraid. That won't help anyone! It is just sensible to follow the instructions and have a good chance of staying well.

I am hoping that someone, somewhere, will find a way to re-think essential business. I suggest that gyms are essential for people who do not have enough space to work out at home and also need to sweat, grunt, and otherwise let off steam. In order to increase domestic distances, provide an outlet, and possibly reduce or eliminate household abuse, it should be acceptable for gym members to go there and get their ya-yas out instead of fuming, steaming, or whatever they do when they are pent up like zoo animals at home.

Mind you, everyone at the gym must be required to follow the current rules for maximum occupancy, cleaning equipment, wearing masks, and whatever else is relevant for workout spaces. Otherwise, people should freely use their gyms.

A painter paints pictures on canvas. But musicians paint their pictures on silence. ― Leopold Stokowski
Well, when things are so bad in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that Doctors Without Borders is on USA for the first time in history, then, folks, things are BAD.

My friends on the Rez called. The food bank there is out of food. They had asked the U S and State governments for assistance, and got nothing.

And the poor everywhere, have fallen through the cracks.
One large church [think it is illegal to mention the name] still has buying power and has supplied some food banks. I do not know if they would provide for a reservation. I am not a member, so I just dunno...

Meanwhile, the rich get richer...


@ceasesmith wrote:

Well, when things are so bad in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that Doctors Without Borders is on USA for the first time in history, then, folks, things are BAD.

My friends on the Rez called. The food bank there is out of food. They had asked the U S and State governments for assistance, and got nothing.

And the poor everywhere, have fallen through the cracks.

A painter paints pictures on canvas. But musicians paint their pictures on silence. ― Leopold Stokowski
I have no interest in getting involved with the arguments above but I do appreciate those who are making very level headed responses. Thank you for not igniting things.
I looked up the current stats for the rates of death in Scandinavian countries. I assume their cultures are more similar to each other than to the US so comparison between those countries and their approach might make more sense. I may be totally off as I am not well versed on the cultural differences.

Sweden deaths 36.3 per 100,000 people
Finland deaths 5.43 per 100,000
Norway deaths 4.38 per 100,000

These numbers are as reported by the NY Times.
The 1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic killed 100,000 Americans and 10 times that globally. They did not destroy the economy, nor did they spend $5 trillion, which is about what these people will spend before they're finished. They did not send unemployment to depression-era levels, or destroy small businesses by the millions, or arrest people for not wearing a mask, or for going to church, or perhaps before we're through here for not touching their forehead to the ground 9 times in a proper kowtow to some governor/king.

It is all a pointless argument anyway. To shut down the country and expect to keep it that way indefinitely is not even an option. It is an artificial, alternate reality, and therefore unsustainable. If the powers-that-be don't open the country the citizens will. And the sooner the better, for what we have here is "Exalted reason... bound to the tail of Folly's uncurbed steed..." and we shall certainly "plunge down headlong in the abyss...".

If we haven't already.
I was reading on the Hong Kong flu today. The 100,000 Americans killed was over an 18 month period, much like the regular flu does. My state does keep track of cases and deaths by age group. For my age group that contracted the virus, 10 percent died. That was a pretty scary statistic for me and not acceptable odds for me to gamble with. I am surprised that Shoptastic's sister saw bars where people were not social distancing. Was it Wisconsin? I heard that the Governor and state legislature in that state were at odds and the court ruled in favor of no restrictions on businesses. I am thankful that in my state, businesses are reopening more carefully and respecting the Governor's restrictions. I am glad to see people out and about, but I do worry that many are not wearing masks. I think everyone here has raised valid points. The hunger in particular is so heartbreaking. As with everything, time will tell and hindsight is always 20/20.
Luckily our bars are not yet reopened. It has been very refreshing because the local news has not reported any bar brawls in the month they have been closed. There have not been shots fired in the parking lots of the bars and clubs that are closed and the number of horrible 'accidents' and DUI fatalities has gone down close to zero. My understanding is that people are not drinking less, they just are doing it at home where they don't have to drive anywhere to get home. While there supposedly is more domestic abuse, there have been fewer at home shootings by far. There appears to be less drug violence and there have been no drive by shootings reported for the month we have been shut down. Heck, we haven't even had a bank robbery! Refreshing.
@Flyy1220 wrote:

"Overall about 60% of Connecticut’s COVID-19 deaths have been nursing home patients — similar numbers to Massachusetts and New Jersey. In Rhode Island the death rate is nearly 70%."

Excerpt from Hartford Courant article from 5/6/2020.

[www.courant.com]

Over 50% in Los Angeles, which is believed to be under-reported.

[www.nbclosangeles.com]
@MickeyB wrote:

If our school district doesn't go back in the Fall, I will be looking at options like moving to another district that is back in school or private schooling locally if that's an option.

You may want to search for keywords such as "online virtual schools", "online virtual charter schools", "public virtual schools", and even the somewhat antiquated "cyber schools". This should yield providers such as K12 Inc., Connections Academy, along with any that are specific to your state. This is NOT homeschooling.
You may be able to contact your state's dept of public instruction for a list of providers; oftentimes a family must choose "open enrollment" to access this type of educational option and adhere to state-specific deadlines and guidelines.

There are also private schools that offer online coursework for a fee per course or tuition.

Best of luck to your family. Both of my adult children benefited greatly from having attended public school virtually for a handful of their K-12 years.

Bilingual (Spanish<>English)
I'm happy to hear they have weekend programs to address food insecure populations and kids on weekends. It is not the case in my community. Here we have free lunch programs which are aiming to replace the lunch service that was in place before the schools shut down, but it is only for kids and only for M-Friday. The food distribution/pantries are at all time lows because the food distribution cycle has been disrupted.

I work for a market research firm and we just did a national sample of the population - over 40% reported that they have delayed or not sought necessary medical treatment that was not COVID related because of the pandemic. They are laying off nurses in Seattle at our largest trauma hospital because people don't seek medical treatment (they are either scared to do so, or still concerned about flattening the curve, not sure). We have public service announcements literally telling people to go to the damn doctor.

I'm not saying the shutdown didn't need to happen (I honestly don't feel I am in a position to say one way or another) but I do think that we are not looking at the bigger picture now and we are suffering from a lack of cohesive central leadership.
Food banks get their supplies from grocery stores and other sources like food manufacturers. I'm not talking a few individual items, but pallets and pallets of food items. The food banks them distribute rations to churches in their network. Volunteers (like me) sort, package and distribute the food to people in need.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

One large church [think it is illegal to mention the name] still has buying power and has supplied some food banks. I do not know if they would provide for a reservation. I am not a member, so I just dunno...

Meanwhile, the rich get richer...


@ceasesmith wrote:

Well, when things are so bad in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that Doctors Without Borders is on USA for the first time in history, then, folks, things are BAD.

My friends on the Rez called. The food bank there is out of food. They had asked the U S and State governments for assistance, and got nothing.

And the poor everywhere, have fallen through the cracks.

"There's so much trouble in this world; surrounded by miracles" - Citizen Cope
Thank you everyone for their concern with my sister. I've been texting her with pictures of my kids (whom she loves dearly) and what we're eating. Asking her to send me pictures of what she's eating too. Hoping we can get back on track.

I researched the 1918 flu pandemic too and the thing that stuck out was that the 2nd wave, which was much worse than the first, hit areas that weren't hit hard the first time.

Only time will tell, but the flu season lasts a long time and I doubt they will be able to make/support people to stay home during it in the Fall.

Covid-19 came here at the end of the flu season and had we continued life without shut downs and let a good portion of the population get it, it might not have been that bad if it came back around in the fall with all the other coronaviruses and flus.

Only time will tell and we have Sweden to look to, so we can gauge their numbers vs their neighbors this time next year.

Speaking of neighbors, the states in the US that didn't issue stay at home orders had better #s than their neighbors.

Didn't issue stay at home orders:
As of 5/18:
Cases Deaths %

Iowa 15083 364 2.41%
Nebraska 10625 125 1.18%
North Dakota 1931 44 2.28%
South Dakota 4027 44 1.09%
Utah 7384 80 1.08%
Wyoming 766 10 1.31%
Arkansas 4813 100 2.08%

Neighbors that did issue stay at home orders:
As of 5/18:

Missouri 11203 612 5.46%
Kansas 8340 198 2.37%
Oklahoma 5398 288 5.34%
Montana 470 16 3.4%

[www.worldometers.info]

Testing could have varied by state, but it still is significantly better overall.

GA has been open for 3 weeks and hasn't seen a spike in cases yet.
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