DO you think the shut down was worth it?

@iShop123 wrote:

Burn, Loot, or Murder.
Murder? *scratches head*

I agree protests that are violent is wrong, but I don't believe I've seen stories of protesters killing people.

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Here are a few. Easy enough to search for others.
Chicago: [freebeacon.com]
Portland Mayor: “You are not demonstrating — you are attempting to commit murder,”
[www.latimes.com]
Seattle: [www.dailymail.co.uk]
[www.nytimes.com]

A lot of violence. You must live outside the major hubs to be scratching your head. Glad to see you post that you agree violent riots are wrong.

"Let me offer you my definition of social justice: I keep what I earn and you keep what you earn. Do you disagree? Well then tell me how much of what I earn belongs to you - and why?” ~Walter Williams
During the 1960s we were very involved in anti-Vietnam War protests. These were non-violent until police in Chicago started cracking protestor heads during the Democratic Convention in Chicago. We didn't need to worry about skin heads or armed 'militia' counter protesting. Peaceful assembly to protest is a tenet of civil discourse. In the area where I live now, the Black Lives Matter demonstrations have been peaceful. When the police welcome skin heads and armed 'militia' they change the dynamics for the worse. Here armed 'militia' were clearly told their 'help' was unwanted and when they were unruly and disruptive, they were arrested and removed from the area. This allowed peaceful demonstrations to remain peaceful.
Yes, I live outside these major hubs - in a suburb that is known as a very safe city. We did have protesters here demonstrate too and there was some anomalous property damage (i.e., most were peaceful). But it wasn't anything like what you saw in the news in many chaotic areas.

I think any good-willed person would be against the more chaotic and violent protests. But, I also think there is a lot of blame on a multitude of sides. Too complicated (and maybe not appropriate/on-topic?) for me to get into here.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/13/2020 06:32AM by shoptastic.
Yes, it is a topic for a different thread and time, though our frustration with the violence and looting goes back to the same nexus of failing civic responsibility in a Democracy. This current topic was whether we thought the shut down helped with the virus control. I think the declines in infections that occurred where the shut down was honored and enforced speak for themselves. Even where it was ignored by way too many, the shut down helped slow the growth curve of the virus. The virus can not be stopped in its tracks by a shut down, it can only be slowed to keep as many people as possible uninfected until a vaccine is ready so that our doctors and nurses can focus on keeping alive those who are sick.
You'll also have a chance years from now to study how various countries did long-term vis-a-vis their lockdown protocols.

A moderator-deleted post I made (probably verbose and with a bandwidth-eating graphic, lol) a while back basically said that early U.S. economic data shows that states hardest hit by COVID have the slowest rate of economic recovery so far on average. This lines up directly with Correia, Luck, and Verner's Federal Reserve/MIT collaboration paper released earlier this year, showing that states that implemented more aggressive lockdown/social distancing measures in 1918's Spanish flu recovered faster economically than U.S. states that let the virus "run wild" so to speak. I said in the post that the chart I saw was stunning in how accurate that was in playing out today thus far. TX and FL, for example, have had slower economic production since the pandemic than other states.

And it makes logical sense. If people don't feel safe going out to spend, they'll pull back. If you have people dying and getting hospitalized for weeks at a time, you have lots of workplace interruption that can set a business back on the supply-side.

Early work travel data across countries (a chart I posted) also show that nations harder hit by COVID have been slower to see work travel patterns pick up (U.S. and U.K.) vs. their peers that controlled the virus better (Japan, Germany, South Korea, etc.). While it might still be early, there is at least a lot of good early evidence that those who controlled the virus better are economically recovering faster (be it U.S. states or entire countries).
@Flash wrote:

Yes, it is a topic for a different thread and time, though our frustration with the violence and looting goes back to the same nexus of failing civic responsibility in a Democracy.
There could be some of that underneath the frustrations. On the surface, if just dealing with the topic of white police-on-black shootings, African American economist, Roland Fryer, at Harvard University, has argued from his research that blacks are not more likely to be shot by police than whites (it's actually the reverse). Although, on other measures, they may be mistreated more. Just specifically on shootings, the data he culls shows the opposite.
[www.cnn.com]
@ wrote:

Fewer infections, stronger recovery
Early in the pandemic, economists repeatedly stressed one point: The trajectory of the virus is ultimately the biggest factor that will determine both the severity of the economic crisis and the speed of the rebound.
We're now seeing that play out across the country.
The states that are operating closest to "normal" are places that recorded the fewest coronavirus cases.
There is a good "Back-to-Normal" index of U.S. states' economic status. Food for thought. This would support the pro-lockdown argument.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/17/2020 11:36AM by shoptastic.
Surely that does not surprise you. IF people had done what they were supposed to do the virus would not have had the opportunity to spread as it did and is doing again. Soon outdoor dining will no longer be an option through much of the country due to weather. Pressure will be on cities and states to allow full occupancy "so the restaurant can survive" and to heck with the patrons and the community.
@Flash wrote:

Surely that does not surprise you. IF people had done what they were supposed to do the virus would not have had the opportunity to spread as it did and is doing again. Soon outdoor dining will no longer be an option through much of the country due to weather. Pressure will be on cities and states to allow full occupancy "so the restaurant can survive" and to heck with the patrons and the community.
It will be interesting how history ultimately judges us many years from now.

The evidence so far seems to show we were wrong in the worst way: high deaths/infections and worst economic damage.

We locked down for nothing (this may be the worst part), b/c Trump and GOP governors undermined everything every step of the way. There was no coordination between states and insufficient enforcement. Culturally, anti-masking was practically encouraged by Trump. Then, out of that semi-useless, porous lockdown, we reopened too soon in hot spots without mask requirements.

I think you call that an abject failure and colossal tragedy of the highest order. *But, I'm not a historian.*
@shoptastic wrote:


We locked down for nothing (this may be the worst part), b/c Trump and GOP governors undermined everything every step of the way. There was no coordination between states and insufficient enforcement. Culturally, anti-masking was practically encouraged by Trump. Then, out of that semi-useless, porous lockdown, we reopened too soon in hot spots without mask requirements.

I think you call that an abject failure and colossal tragedy of the highest order. *But, I'm not a historian.*

I think you have most of it in a nutshell, though even the violated shut down helped flatten the infection curve. There is one more piece, and that is the American psyche. I think it was exemplified well by a Feed the Pig ad I saw today for the first time. A couple has bought their first house and their friends/acquaintances are indicating they want to do that 'some day' as they are eating lobster while having a massage on a hot air balloon. We as Americans do have a great deal of latitude to do what we want and when we want to. We don't necessarily see or want to see the connect the dots between our personal actions and their consequences and many get a knee jerk response against anyone suggesting how the dots connect.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/18/2020 02:25AM by Flash.
I think we were just a little too late to act, and our country was not prepared for it. The guidance on wearing masks was also initially schizophrenic. We had enormous hot spots like New York that scared the heck out of everyone, and the medical experts did not know what they do now about the virus. It is all very sad, and we now have had numerous national disasters on top of everything. We used to have scientists on the ground in China, but alas the funding was cut for those positions last Fall. This might have provided us some advance insight. I don't think we can divorce ourselves from WHO or bastardize China and refuse to work with these entities on science if we want to be better prepared for future pandemic threats. And with what I have read, there are many potential threats due to animals and reptiles carrying these diseases. America will not be great again until we back off of a nationalistic stance and coordinate our efforts. "Was the shut down worth it?" I honestly don't think we had a choice as we were so unprepared. The shutdown perhaps gave states time to make plans and find PPE. One thing I can say, the federal government was really no help in the response. I admire states who stepped up to the plate, albeit not as fast as we would have liked. There are still so many citizens and businesses that are hurting. My heart breaks for them. The Fed has propped up the economy, but it is an expensive bandaid at best. Our national debt is the highest it has ever been. How are we ever going to dig out of this one? Certainly by not doing the same things and expecting a different result. 2020 will certainly go into the history books. I hope I'm around to see what that history will tell us.
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