@panama18 wrote:
Uh, no. If there's a road to ruin, it's Modern Monetary Theory. Some people never learn.
I'm undecided on MMT. I tend to think it can be potentially used in a helpful way, but certainly contains the elevated risk of ruin if done in a reckless, irresponsible way. Given most politicians' proclivity towards short-term thinking over long-term financial well-being of their countries, more than likely MMT would lead to more bad outcomes than good ones when used by governments, imho.
Although, it's all academic at this point, since:
a.) The U.S. is beyond the point of being able to pay back its debts with growth/austerity/taxation and must either officially default (which is embarrassing and no super power nation typically does - not to mention the short-term pain it would cause economically that many politicians would not stomach) or unofficially default (hyper-inflation at worst or just moderate inflation at best in the coming years); and
b.) We've already entered MMT territory recently and will continue printing, given COVID-19 and the unprecedented global depression we are in.
We have record high Gilded Age inequality in America, an inadequate social safety net (including, lack of universal healthcare), anemic economic growth for the past decade, and not enough buyers of U.S. Treasuries in recent years (which is why the Federal Reserve has had to step in with printed money). There isn't a way for us fiscally fund an emergency bailout that I believe is moral and very much economically needed at this point without monetizing the debts. Foreigners and our own citizens buying Treasuries is not enough.
Ultimately, inflation in the future will be the likely way out of our debts, but we've done this before in history and the U.S. turned out okay. The one group that could be hurt greatly under current conditions is the poor. Inflation will wreck their livelihoods and personal finances, as they don't have the money to save into appreciating assets (stocks, real estate, and commodities), as their everyday living expenses could skyrocket (while earning the same). BUT, that might not necessarily be the case. If the U.S. swings back towards a more progressive taxation on things and funds more safety net programs that benefit the lower-classes, then they may fair okay.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/2020 12:33AM by shoptastic.