Even now, I think an aggressive 40 day "purifying" lockdown (really make it coordinated - no individual state rules and pockets where people aren't doing it - and aggressively enforced) would be better than these disjointed openings and closings...over and over. That keeps the virus a constant threat. It interrupts business rhythms.

Rich/older people, who account for the biggest share in consumption, won't be returning to life as normal under these conditions. They care more about their safety/health.

I feel like the U.S. would just be wasting the reopening efforts as is with the virus largely still circulating. Why not EVEN NOW go into a super lockdown? Reduce the spread to practically nothing. THEN, open back up.

Take the pain early, instead of letting it drag on and on and on...

I agree that a full lockdown would have been appropriate in the first place, but it didn't happen. "Essential services" is the loophole that most every business managed to crawl through. Drugstores were open for the obvious, but they sell lots of other stuff as well. Food and liquor stores were open including "food stores" such as Walmart and Target where you can buy anything from groceries through toys and fishing supplies, jewelry and clothing. Contractors continued building new houses, offices, stores, remodels and lots of other non-emergency stuff. Restaurants and fast food stayed open for take out and delivery. The newspaper continued printing and delivering. The lawn service kept mowing.

I am so glad liquor stores were considered essential!

Hm never mind! I put the rant elsewhere.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/27/2020 04:26PM by 2stepps.

Chart speaks for itself.

The best argument that I have heard for wearing masks is that You have to wear clothes when you go out in public

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/14/2020 11:33PM by 2stepps.

@2stepps wrote:

The best argument that I have heard for wearing masks is that You ave to wear clothes when you go out in public

lol. True. Some things are required and not questioned as to their infringement upon our freedom.

I'd go further in this case and say it's even needed for the benefit of the economy. Asking states to open up is one thing (I'm not against it if case counts are low going in and we continue to keep up protections). Asking them to open up without requiring masks at this juncture is dangerous and another thing entirely.

I think you're shooting yourself in the foot by asking to open up w/o masks. Vulnerable people aren't going to do their normal stuff. When cases and deaths inevitably spike up, then you run the risk of a TX, AZ, CA, and FL. These places have to go back to restrictions. This start and stop rhythm hurts businesses.

So, yeah, I'm pro-mandatory mask wearing. Not against opening up gradually off a low case count base, but WITH mask wearing still required at this time. That's my view.

So. Today, do I think the shutdown was worth it? I dunno. I don't have a personal tale to tell about that. My life changed little. But I noticed a few things in recent weeks.

Apparently, the convergence of tourism, protests, and riots have blown reasonable efforts out of the water. Were all these mobilized efforts the best application of personal freedoms at this time, during a worldwide effort to curb the spread and unwanted effects of covid? After all, there was nothing but an attempt to save everyone and an additional awareness of how to spare disproportionately affected lives of elderly, black, and tribal persons. Now, those persons face a higher risk. How, oh how, can the protests and riots be in any way good in light of the fact that they greatly risked the lives of specific groups of people (who might already be victims of the systemic racism)?

My concern does not fit into a logical little package. But recent unnecessary spread does not fit anywhere in the realm of the reasonable.

gah.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2020 02:21AM by Shop-et-al.

Your comment in my other thread about having calmer heads and taking time to digest things before acting was a strong point. It's like when protesters block freeways. This hurts people more than it helps, as you also block emergencies. Taking to time to consider the consequences of your actions is important. Mass gatherings during a medical pandemic no doubt facilitates spread of the virus, as did Memorial Day mass fun, state reopenings in areas with surging cases, and no mask wearing peeps (who don't have a medical condition preventing them from it).

Lots of "blame" to go around. Lives will be lost in the coming weeks that perhaps did not have to be.

I find it just extraordinarily sad that so many have not and are not taking the possibility of getting ill seriously. I can understand the sense of invincibility of the teenager--after all, as parents we have long reassured them there are no monsters under the bed and that when they catch a cold they will be better soon because they are strong and healthy. What I can't understand is adults who should be able to comprehend both the statistics and the altruism of staying safe for both yourself and those you love or care about.

Our bars all closed down again on Friday. A live band was playing on Friday night in a bar where more than 51% of their revenue is from food sales so they are allowed to stay open. The band was chatting with guests and in close contact, hugging old friends, etc. and of course nobody was wearing masks. On Saturday two of the band members showed COVID symptoms. One died on Sunday and the other is on TV news begging anyone who interacted with the band to get tested as he too may not make it. These aren't teenagers. They appear rather to be in their 40's or 50's. The bar/restaurant is closed for deep cleaning but plans to reopen for this holiday weekend with another band. . .

Leadership, mandates, phases, suggestions are all over the place. They vary from week to week, city to city, county to county, and state to state. We, the collective we, are doing this to ourselves.

I don’t see anything different in the foreseeable future. Even after a vaccine is available, I expect there will be those who refuse to get one, similar to those who refuse to wear a mask.

To answer the title question, do I think the shutdown was worth it, it was not. I think IF we had done it correctly, as has been shown by other countries, it would have been.

@Flash wrote:

Our bars all closed down again on Friday. A live band was playing on Friday night in a bar where more than 51% of their revenue is from food sales so they are allowed to stay open. The band was chatting with guests and in close contact, hugging old friends, etc. and of course nobody was wearing masks. On Saturday two of the band members showed COVID symptoms. One died on Sunday and the other is on TV news begging anyone who interacted with the band to get tested as he too may not make it. These aren't teenagers. They appear rather to be in their 40's or 50's. The bar/restaurant is closed for deep cleaning but plans to reopen for this holiday weekend with another band. . .

Sounds unconscionable to have another band in the same setting without mask wearing.

As for your early question, I think a lot of it is still misinformation, even at this late date. Did you see that viral video of the woman in Florida who was at some kind of town meeting (I think??), who was saying how masks were killing people? While it's possible she had mental issues, I still wonder where are people getting this crazy stuff?

I do think our own gov't hurt us on the mask-wearing front. Early on, we told people they weren't effective, when in reality they were and the U.S. wanted to scoop up the few available PPE for healthcare workers (as it was grossly unprepared and didn't have enough). By lying to people first, it undermines the government's ability to later say masks work and people should wear them. They didn't (as far as I know) own up to their lie.

I could see a less informed person thinking: "Hey, this must be some kind of conspiracy. They already said these don't work and now want to force us to wear them? This is just more fear-mongering and government intrusion into our lives! I won't wear one!"

Am I reading this right? Band plays on Friday. Member shows symptoms on Saturday. Dead on Sunday? Wow!
That's really fast. Virus hit hard.

@Flash wrote:

I find it just extraordinarily sad that so many have not and are not taking the possibility of getting ill seriously. I can understand the sense of invincibility of the teenager--after all, as parents we have long reassured them there are no monsters under the bed and that when they catch a cold they will be better soon because they are strong and healthy. What I can't understand is adults who should be able to comprehend both the statistics and the altruism of staying safe for both yourself and those you love or care about.

Our bars all closed down again on Friday. A live band was playing on Friday night in a bar where more than 51% of their revenue is from food sales so they are allowed to stay open. The band was chatting with guests and in close contact, hugging old friends, etc. and of course nobody was wearing masks. On Saturday two of the band members showed COVID symptoms. One died on Sunday and the other is on TV news begging anyone who interacted with the band to get tested as he too may not make it. These aren't teenagers. They appear rather to be in their 40's or 50's. The bar/restaurant is closed for deep cleaning but plans to reopen for this holiday weekend with another band. . .

The band member(s) was probably the carrier. Both band members probably had the corona when they played on Friday, maybe with no symptoms or not recognizable symptoms. The band members were likely infected with the corona about a week before they played the bar. Anyone who came in contact with the band should expect that if they are infected they will likely begin to show symptoms in 5 or 6 days. Of course, that is just the average incubation period. Symptoms could appear as early as 2 days after exposure or it could take up to 14 days for an infected person to show symptoms. Or ...... an infected person may never show symptoms or feel ill but would still be able to infect others. That's the scary part ..... how do you ever know ..... just because someone has no fever or headache and isn't coughing doesn't mean he isn't contagious. And I'm now hearing the virus has mutated and has not become deadlier but has become easier to pass from person to person.

Two of my co-workers have now tested positive for the virus. Both of them were telecommuting 100% and I did not come in contact with either of them. I am now working in the office 3 days a week and telecommuting 2 days. We all thought I would be facing the biggest risk but so far I'm healthy. Of course, when I work in the office, it's just me and the security guards and a couple of people in other departments. I go full days without seeing anyone else except the guard at the front door, except when I go out to pick up lunch. I'm not much for packing lunch. Besides, I need beverages. The office ice machines have been turned off, the refrigerators emptied and are restricted, and the water fountains are disconnected.

That's the scary part about the virus - someone could be infected and not show symptoms. I have to work in the office now. One of my coworkers, who is 25, is going to to MA for vacation this week. He will be on the beach. I'm scared to think what he might bring back. ugh.

[www.cnbc.com]
Not entirely unexpected, but still very disturbing you all:

@ wrote:

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine. . .

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus. . .

The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months. The researchers noted the increase in excess deaths in many states trailed an increase in outpatient visits from people reporting an “influenza-like illness.”

The excess deaths method of calculating/approximating the true COVID death count is a logical one. It takes the number of deaths the U.S. would typically see per month/year averaged over x number of years and compares that "typical" death count to the death count of the most recent months/year. The excess deaths can be seen as possibly related to an ongoing medical pandemic like COVID. When coupled with related symptoms, the case can be even stronger.

So, to summarize:

The U.S. had 781,000 deaths from March thru May 2020. The excess death rate is about 122,300. 95,235 of those deaths were attributed to COVID.

95,235 excess deaths attributed to COVID + 129,000 official COVID deaths = 224,235 aggregate COVID deaths***

***not including possible excess deaths from June and pre-March

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2020 06:02PM by shoptastic.

^^^
OOOOPS???: Possibly totally misread the above article. Maybe someone can correct if I'm wrong?

It could be 122,300 (excess deaths) - 95,235 (official COVID deaths) = 27,065 for excess deaths attributed to COVID. That would make it:

129,000 (official COVID deaths) + 27,065 (excess deaths attributed to COVID) = 156,065 aggregate COVID deaths

BIG DIFFERENCE!

*feeling brain dead and tired too from being sick with cold symptoms*

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2020 06:33PM by shoptastic.

[www.ft.com]

Not good for TX and AZ:

@ wrote:

In Arizona, health officials reported on Monday that 88 per cent of the state’s ICU beds were occupied. Qaali Hussein, a trauma surgeon and critical care specialist who works in Phoenix, said ICU units at several hospitals in the city were already full and they were refusing to admit patients arriving by ambulance to the emergency room.

“We’re essentially saying we’ve reached capacity. When we reach that limit, patients who should be in the ICU are held in the [emergency room] and we cannot accept any new patients,” she said. . .

The Houston-based Texas Medical Center, the largest hospital system in the US, said its ICU system was running at 95 per cent capacity.

Cindy Zolnierek, chief executive of the Texas Nurses Association, said: “When you get to the level of spare capacity of 10 per cent or less, it means you are really tight. Rarely do you have a patient leaving the ICU at exactly the right moment when someone new needs to go in.”

Ms Zolnierek described the situation in Texas as “scary” and said there was a lot of anxiety among nurses. “The stress and exhaustion is really taking its toll and we are going to be in this situation for a while, until there is a plateau.”

@ wrote:

LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

[www.nytimes.com] (July 7)

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/08/2020 04:10PM by shoptastic.

My niece has two late teens sons. She has pointed out that she has spent their lifetimes trying to raise them as healthy young men who start adulthood on at least an equal footing with their peers. While the virus is unlikely to kill them, that is not the same as leaving them unimpaired. She has let them know that she personally would find it very disrespectful of her and what she has tried to do for them if they went without a mask and social distancing. Apparently the approach has been very effective.

re: FL [www.youtube.com]

Excess mortality from January to June was around 8,600. In April, it was around 2,000.

Florida officially reports 4,000 COVID deaths as of today. The true number could be much higher.

It's also the only state that does not release hospitalization numbers of people in there for COVID.

@ wrote:

Paul Waldron—the commissioner for St. Johns County just south of Jacksonville, Florida—has tested positive for COVID-19 and is currently in the hospital in critical condition. Last week, Waldron voted against a countywide order requiring all residents to wear face masks as a way to prevent coronavirus infections.

According to News 4 Jax, Waldron wasn't "necessarily opposed" to the face mask requirement, but wanted county administrators to clarify the types of masks required and whether the county could provide sufficient supplies for employees and citizens entering government buildings.

In a Facebook post written by his daughter, she said he was in the "most critical of conditions," adding that because of "complications from the virus, he went into septic shock and many organs are struggling."

[www.newsweek.com]

Maybe we should have a thread titled, were masks worth it? I pray first and foremost for Mr. Waldron and this should not be thought of first as a "political" post in time like this. But, maybe it highlights in a small way that we all have to realize we're vulnerable and maybe a loved one is. A tiny burden to wear a mask can save a lot of lives.

Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 07/11/2020 02:21PM by shoptastic.

[www.usnews.com]

@ wrote:

TWO MONTHS OF LOCKDOWNS this spring saved as many as 370,000 lives in the U.S., according to new estimates from researchers at the University of Iowa.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide shelter-in-place order on March 19, and by early April, 42 states and the District of Columbia were similarly locked down. While coronavirus infections continued to rise, research shows social distancing measures curbed the growth of new cases within days. The new study, published in the journal Health Affairs, indicates the stay-at-home orders also corresponded with a sharp decline in COVID-19 mortality growth rates that became more pronounced as time went on.

In the first week after a shelter-in-place order was enacted, the average daily growth rate in COVID-19 mortality was 20.5%, according to the analysis, which is based on data from 22 states between March 21 and May 15. In the fourth week after enactment, the growth rate fell by an average of 2.9 percentage points, while after the sixth week, the rate fell by an average of 6.1 percentage points.

New study shows we saved 370,000 lives.

I think with the lifting of the lockdown without requiring face masks all we have done is set ourselves up for Darwin awards. And the worst of it is that we will never know who we let Darwin get. So for all of you non-mask-wearing people out, there be glad that stupidity is not a crime.

@2stepps wrote:

I think with the lifting of the lockdown without requiring face masks all we have done is set ourselves up for Darwin awards. And the worst of it is that we will never know who we let Darwin get. So for all of you non-mask-wearing people out, there be glad that stupidity is not a crime.

A few weeks ago, I started wondering if the GOAL all along was for this to happen. Perhaps some rich, evil political donors to the TX, FL, AZ, NC, etc. governor campaigns want us to get herd immunity fast. Let those who die, die....while they have the resources/means to stay-at-home and watch. They don't have to work and can have their kids or staff buy what they need, sanitize it, and live in isolation. When 80%+ of the U.S. has caught the disease, then they can re-emerge more safely. They'll have bought some time for a vaccine and treatment too (which needs live subjects to experiment on). If you're rich and old, you don't want to spend the rest of your life in hiding from the virus. But, if you force herd immunity on everyone else, while you hide away safely, you have a better chance to come out later and enjoy your life.

*ready to be yelled at and tomatoed* *just a theory/thought*

Herd immunity is not and never has been a serious end game for coronavirus. To get herd immunity 60+% of Americans will have to contract Covid. Spread that out over a year and 600,000 people would have to contract Covid PER DAY for a year. Our hospitals are getting overwhelmed with 1/5 of that already. Now stretch it out over a year.

On top of that, there have been 2 recent studies that show antibodies start going away within 3 months for most people, so even if it takes 6 months we would have to have double the rate of infection in my example above in order to get herd immunity. And 6 months later somebody from Sweden brings it right back in.

That also doesn't bode well for vaccines. They hopefully can up the dosage enough to get antibodies that last for year, but we will likely need to get a vaccine every year and 3/4ths of Americans will need to do it. The Moderna trial was able to produce higher antibody rates than Covid does, but it came with side affects.

Psst. Your paranoia is showing. Cabin fever does tend to do that to one.

I was emailing with my sister (whom I have not seen since early February when we were all discussing stocking up and hunkering down) the other day. We compare what our respective email circles of old friends from around the country are saying vis-a-vis the COVID situation. Yes, the vast majority of our friends are elderly and have become accustomed to spending a whole lot of time at home even pre-Covid.

The issue is concern about folks cavalierly not wearing masks. The subquestion is, "How did we get to a point in our society that people think so little of science, themselves and others?" The answer keeps coming back to Washington, the lies purveyed from there, the lack of leadership, the lack of credibility and years of spawning hate. This is not a quick fix you just throw money at and it will go away. You can't have your lawyers take the virus to court for a cease and desist order. You can't make promises with no foundation in science and reality.

The first steps for a real ending of the virus will probably not begin until the elections in November. And this should have never been a political football in the first place.

Guess I'll get my share of pitched tomatoes too.

'Time and chance'... what shall we do about those?

@Flash wrote:

Psst. Your paranoia is showing. Cabin fever does tend to do that to one.

While spending time studying politics, economics, history, and sociology have made me cynical and jaded, I still don't think it's entirely implausible. I know it's conspiracy-theory-esque, so I expect some eye-rolling and tomatoes. Could be self-isolation delusions getting to me as well...it's been four months!!!!!

re: reopening w/o masks
1 million, trillion % agree that's the biggest issue. As anti-reopening as I have been, I've said before that I WANT to reopen. But, I want to reopen with: a.) a very low case count and b.) with masks.

My local McDonald's has an elderly lady that my mom believes is in her 70's or 80's. The full white hair, frail/thin body, and sagging/wrinkled skin make us believe that. I've been served by her a few times and she is slow, but sweet and friendly. I cannot imagine opening back up, bringing her in, and then having no mask policy for customers.

20% of retirement age workers were in the work force pre-COVID per an article I posted. Many seniors have to work, because of debt and money issues. It's one thing to reopen, but to not require masks is definitely not wrong imo.

WRITE your local politicians! Get them to support mask waering!

We still work. Mind you we rarely have contact with anyone with the hubby's job. This is ideal for us. We wear masks and gloves for my jobs (he helps me now because I have only 1.1 of 2 needed hands that work well).

If I had to wear a mask for a full-time job, I would not work. I can tolerate a mask for about three seconds. After that, it has to go! I just manage to wear my gear for my brief little gigs. And then I am free!!!!!!!!

This goes somewhere. I promise...

Wear a mask because you wear clothes is not gonna' fly.

Masks are for the face. Some people might want as much as lotion there.

Even though I believe that PPE at work will help with worker safety, I will not work at a job where I must wear a mask for much time.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/14/2020 11:51PM by Shop-et-al.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

I can tolerate a mask for about three seconds.

Do you have a medical condition, Shopetal? If so, that's understandable. In Virginia, the rule is that you don't have to wear one if you have a condition. Only thing is, I'm not sure how aggressive they are with having you prove it. If it's "on your honor," then that opens up the door for anyone to just say they have one.

In the end, I worry a lot about the seniors working out there. My first thought is always the McDonald's lady I mentioned. I don't have any good answers for this dilemma.