I live on a court and there are a dozen kids running around playing like they’re on vacation! At what point do the parents bring them in?

@SteveSoCal wrote:

Sharing some stats for anyone who thinks that the severe restrictions California is implementing are too Draconian, or that dining shops will be a good idea in April, or anywhere in the near future. BTW, USA is at 4,661 documented cases right now, so you can pretty much fill in the blanks on this chart. We are 11 days behind Italy:

That is disturbing. Hopefully we can do something now to prevent the same numbers.

@shoptastic wrote:

I also don't have the thumbs up option.

Hitting 'Like This' is the equivalent of the Thumbs-up here

@Niner wrote:

Hopefully we can do something now to prevent the same numbers.

Unfortunately, the effects seem to lag about 10 days behind, due to the incubation period, so even with drastic measures we may still cap that high number from Italy in the US!

That's unreal

[mobile.twitter.com]

A hospital in Bergamo, Italy yesterday. Coming soon to hospitals in the USA...

@SteveSoCal wrote:

Hitting 'Like This' is the equivalent of the Thumbs-up here

For some reason, I no longer have that option. I had it a few years ago. Then, it disappeared. I thought the "thumbs down" button was the equivalent, but apparently not. lol

re: growth curve

One thing I really do pray is that warmer and more humid weather slows this thing down. Scientists have been debating this, but there is some evidence the virus is less effective in surviving hotter and more humid temperatures.

Interestingly, January 2020 was the hottest January in 140 years of modern recorded history:
[www.cbsnews.com]

With COVID19 first coming out of China and mostly slamming Asia first, then Europe...and, now, the U.S., could January's heat have slowed it down? Not a scientist, but I certainly hope. I also hope we get the HOTTEST of HOT Aprils and Mays coming up as well.

On the negative side of things, though, is that China repressed news of this virus early on and accused people of spreading false rumors who tried to warn the world of it inside the country. All during the time COVID19 was first spreading in Wuhan, we had international flights in and out of China to different parts of the world. That means, COVID19 could have been exported to lots of places before travel bans went up. Plus, only recently did Trump restrict travel to Europe.

Still, perhaps January's hot weather slowed it down. Can only hope.

June will be hot. Really hoping everybody's collective action/sacrifices will knock this bug mostly out by summer!

We are.

Over 300M people live in the US, and less than 3,000 people are infected, as per the data in SoCalSteve's chart. To prevent a pandemic crisis, the schools and churches have shut down, public gatherings have shut down, casinos and restaurants have shut down, people are practicing personal hygiene.

Some people think that this is overkill. I, for one, am very happy to see The Powers That Be a step ahead of a potential health crisis.

@Niner wrote:

That is disturbing. Hopefully we can do something now to prevent the same numbers.

Nobody has a thumbs up button. Some people have had problems with the "like this" button disappearing.
If you search past threads over the past year someone had a solution for it and figured out how to get it reappear. The thumbs down button is inactive currently.

@shoptastic wrote:

(p.s. I don't know what the thumbs down button does, but I pushed it thinking it was a thumbs up...sorry if that went to some people's posts. I dunno how to undo it. I also don't have the thumbs up option.)

@MickeyB wrote:

I also had a dining shop this past weekend that I had to cancel as the location closed indefinitely after lunch service on Friday (my shop was Sat/Sun). I emailed the scheduler and got a somewhat terse response that I needed to send in "proof" that the restaurant was really closed or it would negatively affect me.

I did so (easy enough to get proof - screen capture on their website) but was more than a little put off by the attitude. It was a fine dining shop that was reimbursement only, why the heck would I take the shop, then "lie" about how I couldn't do it as planned. I'm in Seattle too - and things are rapidly changing every day here.

@GreenWhite11 wrote:

I'm being contacted by schedulers desperate to finish shops this week before Orlando's tourism industry shuts down, if it hadn't already. Doing a valet shop on the final day before the hotels close or grabbing a last-minute bite to eat seems really inappropriate. It's a public health concern. Normalcy changes pretty quickly.

That MSPs are doing this stuff is morally repugnant. I'm so disgusted. Thanks for sharing and I'm so sorry this is happening to folks.

@SteveSoCal wrote:

Sharing some stats for anyone who thinks that the severe restrictions California is implementing are too Draconian, or that dining shops will be a good idea in April, or anywhere in the near future. BTW, USA is at 4,661 documented cases right now, so you can pretty much fill in the blanks on this chart. We are 11 days behind Italy:

If there was one and only one concept/chart/point that I'd try to get across to others who may not be taking the pandemic as seriously as those in the know, it'd be something like this (the concept of exponential growth).

Whether talking to people individually or sharing broadly on Facebook, Twitter, etc., if we can get people to understand that this thing can blow up massively based on the math of exponential growth and what that would mean with regards to our health system capacity, then that could help them understand its potential seriousness.

I was behind the learning curve on this. I was so pre-occupied with other stuff and just getting bits of info. about a few cases popping up here and there...not understanding:

---how exponential growth works (if unchecked)
---how the U.S. healthcare system is unprepared for it
---how the U.S. was not effectively testing early on
---how the U.S. was slow to close all travel borders

I only got what I felt was a more informed view late last week. It's deceptive, because;

a.) people can spread the virus asymptomatically
b.) the numbers we have/had are bogus, given the lack of early effective testing and slow testing even now
c.) the growth curve will make small numbers explode

I think a lot of people through even last week were taking it lightly. I have highly educated relatives (retired nurse and engineers), who were taking it lightly and not social distancing or avoiding going out. Although, I had seen a dwindling of cleaning supplies and hand sanitizers at my local big box stores prior to last week, it wasn't until after Trump's 3/10 evening national emergency speech that I saw people really clean those out (3/11).

Even starting 3/11, I STILL saw people eating out a lot in my state (driving by restaurants and viewing cars in front of them). But, I equally saw just as many people preparing (panic buying and social distancing).

Hopefully, THIS WEEK will get everyone's notice in a very serious way. Still, it wouldn't hurt to share graphs like this and explain why this can end up being very serious. The worst that can happen is that we over prepare vs. under prepare.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2020 11:47PM by shoptastic.

@MFJohnston wrote:

I'm not at all upset with MSC's that are still trying to get their shops done.... Many are almost certainly facing financial ruin just like countless other small businesses. Schedulers are just as stressed about losing their income stream as many shoppers are. Moreover, a person's understanding of the full dangers of COVID-19 will differ significant based on where s/he lives and what news programs s/he watches (if any). I live in Seattle were this is very, very real. I get my news from several different outlets - with different biases. I have a family member in rural Idaho who only gets her news from one news outlet plus Facebook. She believes that the coronavirus is a hoax. People are going to act upon what they perceive as the truth - not what the truth actually is.

I have compassion for people who for whatever reasons aren't understanding the gravity of this. I have so much grace on an individual level, I really do. I have even more compassion for people across the country experiencing severe, family-fracturing economic hardship because of the economic impact of quarantines/etc. Because of the freelance nature of mystery shopping, that means a lot of mystery shoppers. We should all support one another and do what we can to get each other through this hard, sad time.

However, I have zero patience for MSC's trying to get their shops done. That would be quite the eulogy, "xyz died after being exposed to the virus by a mystery shopper and not getting access to hospital equipment because the healthcare system was too-quickly flooded with cases, but it's okay, it wasn't the MSC's fault for reading and believing the wrong Facebook post." In a professional environment, I expect people to get their information from reputable sources.

Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2020 11:22PM by db1142.

I live at the Jersey Shore..not that crap you see on TV, but the place filled with Victorian houses, culture, kettle corn, etc. We have a huge amount of people that visit us from everywhere. The Southern part of the state has had no cases in a 4 county area and 1 in a county close by. I know that a lot of yus down here feel like we're in a better place because we have no cases so far and because nobody is here, but so many people that have second homes down here are coming from the worst hit areas in this state and our 2 neighboring states. Even though I have a lung disease and a few other issues that make me more susceptible to these things than others, I've felt pretty safe up until now. This weekend, even though everyone was told to shelter in place, hordes came down here to "ride out the storm". We don't have the infrastructure for huge amounts of visitors this time of year, we don't have the supplies, we don't have the hospital beds, we just don't have it this time of year. However, they are still coming. This scares the carp out of me. In the midst of this, of 27 shops I have scheduled to the end of the month, only one has been cancelled.

@HonnyBrown wrote:

Over 300M people live in the US, and less than 3,000 people are infected, as per the data in SoCalSteve's chart.

Point of correction; less that 3k on the 14th. As of right now it's just under 6k in the US (equivalent to 3/7 in Italy) so we are now 10 days behind Italy!

Italy locked everything down starting around 3/10 so we only have about 3 days to get the whole USA in line with what CA and NY are doing, or our numbers will exceed Italy...

@SteveSoCal wrote:

@HonnyBrown wrote:

Over 300M people live in the US, and less than 3,000 people are infected, as per the data in SoCalSteve's chart.

Point of correction; less that 3k on the 14th. As of right now it's just under 6k in the US (equivalent to 3/7 in Italy) so we are now 10 days behind Italy!

Italy locked everything down starting around 3/10 so we only have about 3 days to get the whole USA in line with what CA and NY are doing, or our numbers will exceed Italy...

If the official numbers are that we have 6K infected, I would personally assume that we have 18-20K infected at a minimum.

We have a huge lack of testing. South Korea has tested 150,000+ (figure from over a week ago). The U.S. has tested, what?: 2,500?

If you have those numbers, SSC, we would definitely benefit from them. *Googling around myself right now*

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/18/2020 12:11AM by shoptastic.

Source: [www.businessinsider.com]

Keep in mind the Trump administration did not take WHO's EFFECTIVE test kits early on and instead said they wanted to use U.S. ones (which turned out ineffective).

Trump can say we have so few cases, because WE HAVEN'T BEEN EFFECTIVELY & LARGE-SCALE TESTING!!!...DUH.

...and calling the virus a "Democratic hoax" at one point

Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 03/18/2020 12:31AM by shoptastic.

Correct Steve. That is why I referenced the chart you posted with the <3,000 number of cases on 3/14. With current numbers, we are getting close to a pandemic stage even at less than 1% of cases in the US.

@SteveSoCal wrote:

@HonnyBrown wrote:

Over 300M people live in the US, and less than 3,000 people are infected, as per the data in SoCalSteve's chart.

Point of correction; less that 3k on the 14th. As of right now it's just under 6k in the US (equivalent to 3/7 in Italy) so we are now 10 days behind Italy!

Italy locked everything down starting around 3/10 so we only have about 3 days to get the whole USA in line with what CA and NY are doing, or our numbers will exceed Italy...

For those of you counting on "warm" weather to slow down COVID 19, consider that it is summer in Australia and they have a massive outbreak (per capita). Egypt has a massive outbreak and it is 70 F there. It was 80 F in Miami, FL today.

@myst4au you are so right. I keep hearing people say that this will all blow away when the sun comes out...that's not how this works.

As independent contractors, I believe we are not normally allowed to collect unemployment, however in this situation maybe we will be, due to shops being canceled by clients. Pick out your most productive 4 quarters and use them for your unemployment claims. good luck to all !!!

Agreed. I was just saying that to a friend this morning.

@myst4au wrote:

For those of you counting on "warm" weather to slow down COVID 19, consider that it is summer in Australia and they have a massive outbreak (per capita). Egypt has a massive outbreak and it is 70 F there. It was 80 F in Miami, FL today.

We all should stop shopping, we may be endangering other people. This is no joke, two hundred thousand may well die in the USA alone and a million worldwide, wear a mask when outside and in crowed places.

The CDC has asked that the public not purchase masks as there is a shortage and not enough for healthcare workers.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/18/2020 02:13AM by JASFLALMT.

I went to the vet today and just wrapped a thick scarf around my head to cover my nose and mouth. It worked fine. There is no reason to use masks that are needed by the medical community.

Some states are now closing school for the year or saying it will happen (KS closed, TX and CA warned they will likely close, NYC schools likely according to DiBlasio).

Mystery shopping appears to be over except for phone and internet shops, but I'm still getting enough emails asking me to shop ATVs and even go to the airport.

I got at least a dozen emails today to do in person shops. These people are walking around with blinders!

Remember all those telephone shops we completed and learned about the online teaching/learning company? I would not be surprised if this service grows by leaps and bounds or stretches in other directions to accommodate displaced teachers and learners.

And it's dangerous!!

Sorry, meant as a reply)

Australia does not currently have a "Massive" outbreak. They have reported 454 cases as of today with more than half of those being traced back to travelers from the affected areas in the Northern Hemisphere.

@myst4au wrote:

For those of you counting on "warm" weather to slow down COVID 19, consider that it is summer in Australia and they have a massive outbreak (per capita). Egypt has a massive outbreak and it is 70 F there. It was 80 F in Miami, FL today.

@Jenny Cassada wrote:

@myst4au you are so right. I keep hearing people say that this will all blow away when the sun comes out...that's not how this works.

Yeah, these are good posts/counter-points.

For the record, I actually said there was "debate" amongst scientists about it and that I "hoped" heat and humidity would limit the spread of the virus. I probably should have worded that post more carefully (and my tone), along with its loose speculation!

I certainly hope it's true, of course! Otherwise, we have very tough choices to face in the coming months.

Here is one article on COVID19 and temperature:

[www.accuweather.com] (March 13, 2020)

@ wrote:

Research from a laboratory-grown copy of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the COVID-19 illness shows that heat affects the virus and impacts its behavior, a top pathologist said new research has shown. But other infectious disease experts aren't yet convinced.

“In cold environments, there is longer virus survival than warm ones,” Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls told AccuWeather exclusively.

“Temperature could significantly change COVID-19 transmission,” the authors note in the study. They also pointed out that the “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature.” . . .

One recent research paper supported this assertion by pointing out the proximity of the major hotspots. The authors of the study, which was published last week, wrote that COVID-19 “has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)."



“Notably, during the same time, COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China,” the paper notes. “The number of patients and reported deaths in Southeast Asia is much less when compared to more temperate regions noted ... The association between temperature in the cities affected with COVID-19 deserves special attention.” . . .

“It really doesn’t have anything to do with the warmth, but it has to do with the length of the day and the exposure to sunlight, which inactivates the virus through UV light," Fair, who is an MSNBC science contributor, said during an appearance on the network. "We expect a dip in infections as we would see with the cold and flu in the spring and summer months.

But, he cautioned, "The science is still out. We can assume this will follow typical other coronavirus cases. We can expect a dip in the summer. But that doesn’t mean that we will be out of the woods … Everyone in the scientific and public health community expects it to be back in the fall and we expect to be in this for quite some time.”

Too early to know/tell, but it's a hope!

If heat does limit the virus' growth/survival rate, it probably wouldn't eradicate it entirely, but the hope is that it slows it down and also buys us time for a possible vaccine. Again, I would emphasize the word hope here!

Although, keep in mind:

@ wrote:

One thing the infectious disease experts are all unable to evaluate: “Once the virus leaves the body, human factors are more unpredictable,” Nicholls told AccuWeather.

Those variables could include people going to work with symptoms rather than staying home, the inability of countries or regions to have effective screening tests or isolation facilities, or health care workers not having access to personal protective equipment because of supply shortages, among other possibilities.

“We could call these the ‘bozo factors,’” Nicholls said. Those types of unpredictable, unmeasurable variables would mean “all bets are off as to whether the hoped-for decrease in summer will eventuate.”

Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 03/18/2020 05:45AM by shoptastic.