Speaking of hoarding, I'll say that I only stockpiled on paper towels, toilet paper, etc. only because I bought it a year or two ago on GREAT deals; not so much planning for a world apocalypse... .

Whenever the unit price for toilet paper drops BELOW $0.00253/sheet and a quality brand and type *cough* Quilted Northern Ultra Plush 3-Ply *cough*, then you buy as much as your home allows.

With the economy shaking up, this ideal $0.00253/sheet price point may no longer be reachable due to inflation of the market, sadly

@Tarantado; Don't you think there will be a price drop to accompany the sales drop from the people who hoarded?

Pandemic or not, there's a finite amount of TP that people in the world use...and I would guess that use has gone down the past month. I've become much more aware of my use and no longer use it for things that don't involve the toilet! I'm using more facial tissue and paper towels now.

I appreciate being reminded to buy paper towels. I just got 7th Generation unbleached which of course I had to buy in bulk (that's okay). I can only surmise that Americans want white paper towels so left the unbleached for me. I saw a few going for about $8 per roll. My order was about $2.20 per roll although they have 120 sheets per roll instead of 100. I guess that's okay although I wouldn't normally pay anywhere near that. They should last a long long time.

@SteveSoCal wrote:

@Tarantado; Don't you think there will be a price drop to accompany the sales drop from the people who hoarded?

Pandemic or not, there's a finite amount of TP that people in the world use...and I would guess that use has gone down the past month. I've become much more aware of my use and no longer use it for things that don't involve the toilet! I'm using more facial tissue and paper towels now.

Quick answer; no. tl;dr: Increased marginal costs (short term costs) will likely be reflected in the end-price for the consumer, as learned in ECON 101.

Price gouging views (and laws) aside and purely from a supply chain perspective, the sudden increase of toilet paper sales (for reference, 213% sales increase in the second week of March) created an immediate impact in supply the stores, thus creating a shortage. Though it was detailed that people will end up using the same amount of toilet paper regardless, the manufacturers are affected for the very reason that they were forced to ramp up productions during this unusual time. These manufacturers do not have all these extra machines and equipment set aside for these scenarios to make up for shortages, most likely. Thus, with fixed capital, but throwing more bodies at what's fixed to increase production (aka adding more marginal costs via labor), the manufacturers lose in productivity. As a result, unless there are regulations are will FORCE the manufacturers to suck it up and eat the costs (including others in the supply chain such as distribution), the marginal cost increases will be reflected at the end-pricing for the consumer.

The real question in all this is when end-prices are established when normal operations resume for the toilet paper manufacturers, will the end-price come back to normal too? My opinion and will obviously see it when that time does come around, as long as Q1 and Q2 2020 sales aren't "set" as new targets to exceed and beat without full perspective (an UNUSUAL sales spike fueled by consumer panic), then HOPEFULLY prices for toilet paper aren't affected in the long term in a negative way (inflation due to sales from Q1 and Q2 2020 without adjusting the numbers appropriately).

@Tarantado wrote:

As a result, unless there are regulations are will FORCE the manufacturers to suck it up and eat the costs (including others in the supply chain such as distribution), the marginal cost increases will be reflected at the end-pricing for the consumer.

I saw a report at one point which explained that TP mills do not operate continuously on a single product, and so only a basic schedule adjustment would be needed to meet the increase in demand, which could then potentially lead a lack of other paper products. They were not running extra shifts at the plant where the interview took place.

I guess if price gouging is allowed, it would happen on ALL products, however. That said, I was not particularly aware of my actual TP usage rates until recently, so if if rolls were $1 more each, I would still be in for less than $20 extra in annual expense, which I saved filling up my car with gas yesterday!

The process of cooking 100% of my food the past 6 weeks has been a massive shift in my lifestyle and has me rethinking a lot of expenses as it is anyway. The big change from this may be that I make more money by not mystery shopping, and gain a healthier lifestyle in the process.

@Tarantado wrote:

Whenever the unit price for toilet paper drops BELOW $0.00253/sheet and a quality brand and type *cough* Quilted Northern Ultra Plush 3-Ply *cough*, then you buy as much as your home allows.

I am happy to find someone else that figures out the price per sheet of toilet paper. I have a folded paper in my wallet with my target per sheet price (and it only works for two ply), I used to do the same whenever I had to order a large amt of pizza for my kids' birthday parties. Costco always won big no matter what sales were going on in those other places calling an 8" a large or sometimes even an extra large..

@SteveSoCal wrote:

I saw a report at one point which explained that TP mills do not operate continuously on a single product, and so only a basic schedule adjustment would be needed to meet the increase in demand, which could then potentially lead a lack of other paper products. They were not running extra shifts at the plant where the interview took place.

I guess if price gouging is allowed, it would happen on ALL products, however. That said, I was not particularly aware of my actual TP usage rates until recently, so if if rolls were $1 more each, I would still be in for less than $20 extra in annual expense, which I saved filling up my car with gas yesterday!

The process of cooking 100% of my food the past 6 weeks has been a massive shift in my lifestyle and has me rethinking a lot of expenses as it is anyway. The big change from this may be that I make more money by not mystery shopping, and gain a healthier lifestyle in the process.

Supply chain ISN'T basic though.... Even if what you're saying that increased labor wasn't needed and the manufacturers were suddenly magically able to increase volume, while maintaining productivity, there is likely going to be added cost for distribution changes. It's yet another part within the supply chain that's the consequence of short-term increases of productions; losing productivity, thus increasing end-prices. Increasing prices due to this isn't price gouging, which was why I left that out altogether and purely from a supply chain perspective.

The crash of the oil and gas industry is another topic altogether though..... Why the US is still accepting shipments from Saudi? I have no stinkin' idea and baffled by it But now that's diving more deep into politics than I'd like.

What if all of the would/should/could be presidential candidates just decide they want no part of cleaning up this mess. Ha, every possible one just saying, "Hell no! Nope. Nope. Nope!"

It's a rhetorical question. I know the fame and fortune is too hard to resist and some psycho will do it. And there are protocols if no one wants the title. But I just think it would be a kick to see everyone refuse the job!

(Not a political statement per se, just the musings of a simple mind with way too much idle time)

One of the reasons for the tp shortage is that a huge number of people stopped using the toilet at work and started using it a lot more at home. The commercial tp supplies are stacking up at businesses everywhere while the residential supplies were wholly inadequate.

@CoffeeQueen wrote:

One of the reasons for the tp shortage is that a huge number of people stopped using the toilet at work and started using it a lot more at home. The commercial tp supplies are stacking up at businesses everywhere while the residential supplies were wholly inadequate.

Yes; I have heard that excuse as well...but here's where it falls apart; Why are other items I commonly use at the office in full supply?

I probably use 5% of my TP supply at work, while I consume 75% of my coffee either at work or from a currently closed Starbucks. Yet, all of the milk, sugar and other coffee supplies are readily available everywhere I go.

Are you telling me the retail supply chain for TP is so fragile that it can't handle a 50%, or even 100% increase in demand without falling to pieces for over a month? I can get staples, copy paper, ink cartridges, and just about everything else that work normally supplies for me anywhere. Why is that supply chain so much more robust?

To me, it seems that people hoarded hand sanitizer, TP and soap. Nobody (but apparently me) was worried about running out of coffee and printer ink....don't get me started on rice and pasta!

@SteveSoCal
...... The process of cooking 100% of my food the past 6 weeks has been a massive shift in my lifestyle and has me rethinking a lot of expenses as it is anyway. The big change from this may be that I make more money by not mystery shopping, and gain a healthier lifestyle in the process.[/quote wrote:

Hubby laughed when he opened the Master Card bill.

When a flower doesn’t bloom, you fix the environment in which it grows, not the flower.
Alexander Den Heijer

*wonders if peeps are using NAPKINS and PAPER TOWELS as their TP???*

given the tp shortage and all

Whaddya Know?: [www.bloomberg.com]

About 6% of JPM's smaller customers got PPP loans:

@ wrote:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provided loans to virtually all of its commercial banking customers that sought financing through the small business relief program, while the lender’s smallest customers were almost entirely shut out, according to data disclosed by the bank.

More than 300,000 customers of JPMorgan’s business banking unit, which serves smaller firms, applied for loans through the Paycheck Protection Program, part of the $2 trillion Cares Act that Congress adopted in late March. About 18,000 were funded, for a 6% success rate.

By comparison, about 5,500 larger, and sometimes more sophisticated, customers of the commercial banking business applied for funding. Nearly all of them got loans, according to the bank’s data. JPMorgan made a total of $14 billion in small-business loans through the program.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 10:02PM by shoptastic.

What about Bidet in a Bottle? Or washcloths? Or baby wipes? (Oh, all right. If you want to use adult wipes, go ahead. I will not stop you...)

Sent 2 DDs to Aldi today. Just started going there since the Pandemic shelter at home. I have been there twice and now it's a 3rd visit. I was hesitant to try their products as it was all their own brands. Everything was pretty good. They have the shortest line to enter the store. DDs went to Trader Joe's first and the line was wrapped around the parking lot 3X. Then they drove to Target, long line and they left as we are not crazy about their food offerings. They wound up at Aldi. Waited 1/2 hour in whipping winds. Everything good/available with exception of chicken and frozen broccoli. They bought fresh broccoli instead and and some ground chicken. We shall see if it is good. I figure I can make stuffed peppers with it. TP was their own brand. Not too bad. 8 rolls for $7, limit one. Lots of paper towels. DD #2 looked up TP on Amazon a few days back. $41 for a pack? LOL.

@shoptastic wrote:

Whaddya Know?: [www.bloomberg.com]

About 6% of JPM's smaller customers got PPP loans:

@ wrote:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provided loans to virtually all of its commercial banking customers that sought financing through the small business relief program, while the lender’s smallest customers were almost entirely shut out, according to data disclosed by the bank.

More than 300,000 customers of JPMorgan’s business banking unit, which serves smaller firms, applied for loans through the Paycheck Protection Program, part of the $2 trillion Cares Act that Congress adopted in late March. About 18,000 were funded, for a 6% success rate.

By comparison, about 5,500 larger, and sometimes more sophisticated, customers of the commercial banking business applied for funding. Nearly all of them got loans, according to the bank’s data. JPMorgan made a total of $14 billion in small-business loans through the program.

I mean, are we really supposed to believe that the outsourced banks assisting the SBA are genuinely going to act as fiduciaries to all PPP loan applicants, REGARDLESS if they have an existing banking relationship with them or not?

@SteveSoCal wrote:

Yes; I have heard that excuse as well...but here's where it falls apart; Why are other items I commonly use at the office in full supply?

I probably use 5% of my TP supply at work, while I consume 75% of my coffee either at work or from a currently closed Starbucks. Yet, all of the milk, sugar and other coffee supplies are readily available everywhere I go.

Are you telling me the retail supply chain for TP is so fragile that it can't handle a 50%, or even 100% increase in demand without falling to pieces for over a month? I can get staples, copy paper, ink cartridges, and just about everything else that work normally supplies for me anywhere. Why is that supply chain so much more robust?

To me, it seems that people hoarded hand sanitizer, TP and soap. Nobody (but apparently me) was worried about running out of coffee and printer ink....don't get me started on rice and pasta!

Maybe because there isn't a panic and/or need to purchase these materials? Even when I transitioned to work from home, I'm sure many others print much, much less and use physical supplies less, in general. Either that, or they're pulling out of their company's supply closet because for MANY companies, they're pretty strict on what they allow as reimbursements for their W2's.

Got plenty of TP and PTs from when they were on sale months ago, but when we run out of napkins (I have the nice Vanity Fair ones), we will just break out the cloth napkins and wash them. I did a reset at a store late last year and they had a whole cart of nice thick Vanity Fair dinner napkins that I bought for .75 cents each. Still have probably 4 packs of them.

quote=shoptastic]
We're used to having 3-6 months of paper goods supplies. So, it's a little weird when we're out of something like napkins. Always buynig in bulk when on sale previously. Hard/impossible to do nowadays.

Discouraged by the $60 paper towels (like 2 freaking rolls) sold on Amazon.

Will take everyone's advance and sit and refresh all day/night. I do have a ton of time! THANKS![/quote]

@Tarantado wrote:

Maybe because there isn't a panic and/or need to purchase these materials?

But coffee? Is there any less coffee use?

I had recently purchased a burr grinder for my espresso a week or so before the virus news broke. It was more about breaking the Starbucks habit at the time, but that has probably been my best impulse purchase in years. My barista skills are getting up there so I have career options if MSing doesn't return

I also had 8 cloth napkins in a kitchen drawer that had probably been sitting there for 4 years. They are now my main napkin supply. That doesn't work out well unless you have laundry options at home, though.

Yeah, got that covered. But I only have 3 bottles of laundry detergent left (haven't bought any since August). You could hand-wash them in the sink, my mother used to handwash her delicates and my grandmothers washed clothes with a washboard and lye, so...

We still have lots of coffee on the shelves but the price has gone up. A large can of Chock Full of Nuts is now $9.99 a can (about 36 oz) and it used to be $5.99. We have a one cup at a time brewer with refillable pods, so we are good. I don't drink coffee for the flavor, it's all about getting me (and other things) moving in the morning. I am a one cup a day kinda gal. We still have two large cans in the pantry so probably good until mid June.

I have a pretty decent coffee supply but only because it was on a big sale right before the pandemic. I was grinding my coffee one bag at a time at the store but discovered they took the grinders out presumably to protect customers from the virus. So pretty soon I will be back to grinding.
As for the tp crisis yes, people are spending time at home on their own tp supply now but I still believe most of the early people ran to the store to get a big supply of tp once they heard about the "flu like symptoms", Many of those symptoms would require a much larger than normal tp supply at home. And then it became like every other popular trend...the rest got scared about a shortage and ran out and got theirs too. At one time it was predicted a huge number of us would have these flu like symptoms.
Now the garlic shortage???

@sandyf wrote:

Now the garlic shortage???

Ruh-Roh! I usually buy four heads at a time, and I only have a couple of cloves left.

This is just unacceptable. I can do without almost anything else.

@sandyf wrote:

Now the garlic shortage???

It's not hard to grow, especially if you live in a warm climate like CA.

Is garlic freeze-able? Or, does it turn to mush?

@JASFLALMT wrote:

Got plenty of TP and PTs from when they were on sale months ago, but when we run out of napkins (I have the nice Vanity Fair ones), we will just break out the cloth napkins and wash them.

Here’s a tip from my Navy days. In the Wardroom we had metal napkin rings with our names on them for our cloth napkins. Due to a continual shortage of fresh water the napkins were only washed every three or four days. I’m sure you could find something to substitute for for the metal rings. Maybe TP inner tubes? No need to wash them after each meal.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/23/2020 03:13AM by kenasch.

RE Garlic
I looked at the big bag of already peeled garlic at costco a few weeks ago. Now i am thinking maybe I can buy that and freeze the indiv cloves. It was way too much for me. Pounds of it. They do sell little cubes of frozen smashed garlic like tiny ice cubes so I am thinking you can smash it and freeze and use in cooked recipes. Ralphs (Kroger) said they have not gotten garlic for over a week. Other stores i had been in last week had a low supply. I keep buying the biggest one I can find and it lasts only a few days. My neighbor just found 2 for me at the Japanese grocers but they are so small they will not last long.

@SteveSoCal wrote:

But coffee? Is there any less coffee use?

I had recently purchased a burr grinder for my espresso a week or so before the virus news broke. It was more about breaking the Starbucks habit at the time, but that has probably been my best impulse purchase in years. My barista skills are getting up there so I have career options if MSing doesn't return

I also had 8 cloth napkins in a kitchen drawer that had probably been sitting there for 4 years. They are now my main napkin supply. That doesn't work out well unless you have laundry options at home, though.

It could just be a Cali thing. My local farmers market hasn’t had issues with coffee beans.

Though I’ve been absolutely irate that CashApp finally ended the $1 off $1.50 coupons, which I completely understand because I imagined they lost so much money from that promo, I pretty much had free coffee with Panera until June. So now I just swing by every other day to pick up a large cold brew for me and my sister, which is stupidly potent and surprisingly good.

With that being said, free coffee is the only thing holding me back from purchasing an automatic (or semi-automatic) espresso machine with burr grinder. I still grind my beans using my hand grinder with a Moka pot or Aeropress, but with all this free coffee, I haven’t been able to convince myself to invest in a true espresso setup at home... Though I do sorely miss my espressos.

I had time to browse MSC sites. I discovered that one beloved company no longer has assignments near me. This is a sad thing. Then, I added a new-to-me company from the list in this forum. This one has work near me. This is a good thing.

@shoptastic wrote:

If I sound like hoarder, it's b/c our NORM (since I was a young kid) has been 3-6 months of all paper goods stocked. Sometimes a year's worth of TP (if it was super cheap). I realize some people might struggle to find any. I probably sound crazy...but relative to MY baseline, I'm/we're low on supplies if that makes sense.

Where do you store a year's worth of toilet paper?